Gates Sketches Out Vision for the Future

If there is one thing about Gate's predictions of the future, they involve everyone having loads of disposable income, and happen to incorporate what ever the hell crap thing they are pimping at the time.

Why they came out with this Origami thing is a mystery. It's got the power of a lap top with no keyboard and a half sized screen, so it's like a PDA, only it's too big to fit in your pocket and has to be carried around in your bag, probably with your laptop.

Bill Gates is not the CEO of Microsift.

gates has never impressed ANYBODY with his sense of vision...his luck and timing, maybe, but certainly not his vision.

Anyway, ms points out a new way of personal computer by Origami which must be small, compatible and have a long-time cell. Origami still has a lot of thing to improve. Its cell is not perfect which can only last 3.5 hours and the size of Origami is a little large.

Bill Gates is absolutely correct. Everything in that first paragraph is going to come true. People don't like Mr. Gates, but his vision of the future seems pretty reasonable. I can see it come, and so can everybody else. If you don't like Windows, that is fine, but Bill Gates' Vision of the future here, is just that cell phones and computers will be even more useful in the future than they are now. It is hard to argue with that.

only time can tell if Gates is right. Imho he probably is far as cell phones go, but the merging of computers and TV's may not happen for a while or in fact it may never happen at all because people use computers and TV's for rather different purposes. On the one hand it's cool to watch a movie on a big huge TV panel while using the same panel to type up text may not be as cool. to me it seems more likely that entertainment centers will be becoming more and more like computers without ever actually getting quite all the way there. Eventually different versions of the same OS's will probably run both computers and new advanced home entertainment centers yet the two, computers and home entertainment centers, are in all probability going to remain separate from each other. The kind of computers used in the workplace won't be merging with TV's in any case, I don't think

while computers and TVs will merge

This is a nebulous and strange statement. How will they merge in ways that they have not already?

My new Sony SXBR HD set is pretty darn computerized. It has a firewire port that can be used to control my camcorder. It takes a smart card from the cable company and can decode encrypted signals. As far as I can tell, it is a computer.

Now my desktop computer is also a TV. It takes video signals, tunes in cable and broadcast channels, and the 24" wxga monitor does a fine job of displaying said videos.

Saying that computers and TV will merge is pretty meaningless if you ask me. Sure, TVs will become more computerized and Net connected, and computers will become more connected to TV viewing. Many people have all of the above networked and working together for the good of home entertainment. This all makes sense and it isn't the future, it is now.

To suggest that one day there will be no distinction between a general purpose computer and a "tv" computer is insane. I doubt anyone wants to run Microsoft Word on a 50" display sitting across the living room. Of course, I could be wrong.

Gates vision is for MS to continue to dominate the world.

It is true that a larger screen is needed on all wireless hand-helds. Also they need a better User Interface. I don't think Origami meets either of these.

There are several interesting emerging technologies, but they are not available yet. The technologies include: roll up screens; Voice recognition; heads up displays; bots or agents; wi-max. to name just a few.

Steve Jobs can say the same thing tomorrow and he will be hailed a genius. It seems to me that Gates has this view of the future much like people from the 30's thought if the 90's.

It's bull@!$%# time to promote Origami.

Anyone can think of the future, but it's acceptance by the general public that determines what the future should be.

Technology forecasts are always good for retrospective humor. In the 40s, we were all going to have our own airplanes, in the 50s (think Korean War) we were all going to be flying helicopters to work and to the store, and cars were going to be going 150 MPH between cities. Why not? These geniuses didn't think about the problem of air traffic control, and the skills required to fly a helicopter. Can you envision 200,000 helicopters converging on Manhattan? Well, they didn't try, either, so they issued these kind of techno-visions with a straight face. Popular Science and similar were full of this stuff when I was growing up, and we can all get a good laugh now.

I have my issues with Bill, but he's not a dumb guy, and I'm surprised he would let himself get roped into saying this kind of stuff publicly. Its just doomed.

With Microsoft developing aspects of hardware this future vision is more than probable. But with the holes in portable electronics and wireless systems and the exploits hackers discover every other day, I would not want to have a "digital wallet" with more any pertinent information. No matter how "secure" proof the system is.

Dallas Ransom writes:
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Why they came out with this Origami thing is a mystery. It's got the power of a lap top with no keyboard and a half sized screen, so it's like a PDA, only it's too big to fit in your pocket and has to be carried around in your bag, probably with your laptop.

Couldn't agree more its as if they really have no marketing strategy or direction with Origami. That and its rediculously expensive and I could use a PSP for my photos and videos.

Here's an idea Gates! How about you work on your swiss cheese operating system and make it as stable as Safari or I don't know Linnux? That's the vision I hope to see! I don't want to have to send Error Reports on my "Digital Wallet".

Somebody cue up Conan! Maybe it will happen in the year 2000!

Give credit where credit is due.

I believe this article was taken from here:

My only issue w/ this article of the Gates quotes is that he's talking about the past, not the future.

Cell phones are already "digial wallets" in some parts of the world. The future is already here in that regard. NTT CoCoMo + Asia trumps anything in the U.S. in that regard.

from: http://www.idtechex.com/printelecreview/en/articles/00000455.asp

"NTT DoCoMo, one of Japan's largest cellphone providers, has sold more than 5 million RFID enabled phones, which can be used on the Japanese National rail system rather than magnetic-stripe tickets."

I use my Tivo (on my Tivo) to browse photos on my computer and on myYahoo photos. My TiVO is a computer. A linux based computer oddly enough. So, that future is here too. I also watch "TV" on my computer all the time on google video and youTube. I watch TV shows from ITunes on my computer too... Not even to bring up the linux PVR's out there and Microsoft MediaPC's.

I get email on my cell/PDA/blackberry already. Well, actually I used to, I gladly got rid of my blackberry over a year ago. It was trying to take over my life and succeeding!

Uh, the link in my previous comment is gone? Anyways, it was a link to a BusinessWeek article.

MCLEAN, VA. — Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates sketched out a vision for the future Wednesday in which a cell phone will become a "digital wallet," able to receive e-mail and even scan business cards, while computers and TVs will merge.

If this cell phone can do all these things why would we still need "paper" business cards? That's not very futuristic. Just send me your digital business card over a wireless connection to my cell phone (that receives email, WOW, how Blackberry/Treo of it). It could still look like a business card, just not on paper.

And how is any of this revolutionary or visionary? Seems pretty predictable to me.

(And even if Jobs said this I'd be just as critical.)

actual I think RFID biz cards would be more futuristic. If you could get one of those access badges as a biz card and then it could exchange data (mate) with other RFID biz cards maybe? I read about stuff like that years ago but it has yet to materialize in any significant way that I've noticed.

The fancy business cards are great but most of the business cards I get are thrown away every couple of months when I clean out my wallet. It looks as though we are trying to reinvent the wheel.

Perhaps soon you'll just have and RFID tag implanted in your hand and you'll exhchange info with whomever you shake hands then dock the information when you touch your computer when you get home.

Of course, I hope I don't get and RFID-STD err.. virus.. from shaking hands w/ someone!

pertty interesting thougth.