I seem to recall from a recent TwIT podcast that the current Toshiba player is essentially a glorified Linux box, with all of the issues you'd expect from a rev. 1.0 platform. Between for format wars, the reluctance of the studios to invest heavily in content for what may be the losing platform, and the bulk, uncertain 'upgrade path', and unsophistication of the rev. 1.0 platforms, this looks to be a non-starter for 18 - 24 months as a standalone entertainment center device. (Except, of course for the open source community who will no doubt find a way to hack the Linux based Toshiba platform and create a killer application for a niche market).
As a game console peripheral for the X-Box 360 and PS3, where some of the serious lifting will no doubt be performed by the console itself it may be another matter. But only when the console manufacturers have had their latest generation platforms in the market for 24 months, and can begin migrating to games that actually leverage the capacity of media on the HD-DVD players without alienating early adopters.
One obvious solution, players that support both HD-DVD media formats, won't come unless one format begins to emerge as the popular choice. Backers of the less popular standard might then relax what I understand are current licensing provisions prohibiting player manufacturers licensing one format from subsequently licensing to build the competing format.
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