COLUMBIA — Texas Rep. Ron Paul said his second-place finish in Nevada's GOP presidential caucuses on Saturday showed his message is being heard and that he has more supporters than he thought.
"Millions of people have heard this message and this is why coming in second is very great, it sends a great message," Paul said to loud cheers. He conceded that South Carolina's primary, where he was running a distant fifth, was not his to win.
Paul took several swipes at former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who got fewer votes than Paul in Nevada and was trailing Paul in returns being tabulated Saturday night in South Carolina. He told the audience about a confrontation with Giuliani during this month's debate in South Carolina. He said Giuliani "cut me down."
"Tonight, if this is the final tally on that confrontation, we got three times as much vote as the mayor got," he said, referring to Nevada.
Paul collected four delegates from the Nevada caucus to Giuliani's one.
Paul's campaign supports low taxes and reduced government spending.
Wow! It's a distant 2nd, but it's 2nd. And it looks like he will lead in fundraising for the 4th quarter. Looks like he may have influence on platform this summer if he can hold this momentum (10% or so of the vote). [Disclaimer: that's a link to one of my articles.]
How is he going to have influence? Ron Paul will not win a single primary. He currently has six, count 'em, six delegates. He has a very small and rabid base.
Ron Paul is no Gene McCarthy.
I don't think either party will be able to ignore 10% of their base and expect to win in November. The Rs appear more fragmented that the Ds at this stage --I would not want to be in charge of their November strategy.
I do not understand exactly how this works in the Republican party, but people are saying that this will end up being a brokered convention, the first in a half century. At that point the other candidates will be trading things for each other's delegates.
Another article on how this would actually work: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/politically_uncorrected_conven.html
In their place, party primaries and caucuses have become the de facto nomination mechanism; successful nominees have arrived at the convention with the delegate votes needed or comfortably close to that needed for a first ballot nomination.
But what if that doesn't happen in 2008? What if no candidate wins a majority of the delegates before the party conventions convene in late August and early September?
The answer is both simple and profound. If no candidate arrives with a majority of delegates, the convention itself must determine the winner. But who exactly will do this? And how?
In the past, contested conventions have been "brokered," which is an elegant way of describing the hard-nosed horse trading carried on by leading party bosses seeking a nominee. The bosses tried to settle on a nominee before the convention. When this failed, they used multiple ballots to test respective candidate strength.
Considering his previous performances and SC, he better be bloody happy with second. :o
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