WASHINGTON — Democrat Barack Obama has a narrow lead over John McCain in a potential presidential matchup, while Hillary Rodham Clinton is about even with the Republican front-runner, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll indicated Monday.
The survey is the first look at voter sentiment since last week's Super Tuesday presidential contests around the country and Mitt Romney's departure from the GOP race. Obama and Clinton are battling in a Democratic campaign that may take weeks or even months to resolve, while McCain, an Arizona senator, is the likely Republican nominee.
Obama, an Illinois senator, led McCain in the poll by 48 percent to 42 percent when people were asked which one they would prefer if the presidential race were held now. Clinton, a senator from New York, got 46 percent to McCain's 45 percent in their matchup.
The poll shows Clinton leading Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination, 46 percent to 41 percent. McCain is well ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has remained in the Republican contest, by 44 percent to 30 percent. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has 9 percent.
The survey was conducted from Feb. 7-10 and involved telephone interviews with 1,029 adults. It had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Included were 520 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.3 points, and 357 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 points.
Head-to-head polls at this stage of the race are meaningless. Michael Dukakis was well ahead of George H.W. Bush until mid-summer in his race. Same was true of Carter and Reagan.
But you're talking about a far more interested and informed population than in either of those situations. I'm not saying that they actually mean much, but they do mean what they say. More people at this moment would support Obama over McCain than Clinton over McCain.
"Informed"? ROTFLMAO.
Seems to me, Bill, that you consider yourself superior to everyone else. ROTFLMAO.
i get what your saying bill but did you read his post?
nah my first reaction when i hear "informed voter" is to laugh
but it is undeniable that their is more interest int his election that in those previous ones you mention.
We have far more people who are studding the situationa nd we also have this crazy thing call the net and newsvine which helps all of us have far far far far more information than we ever had. ANd even able to verifiy the disinformation that comes to us in more traditional means.
laugh all you want bill but this is the most informed population ever (not sayign even the majority is informed but it is a step in the right direction)
Not to mention, the fact that we have the Internet at all makes us far more informed.
all makes us far more informed.
But more informed about trivial matters, or significant matters?
But you're talking about a far more interested and informed population than in either of those situations.
Roflmao.
Are you saying we were an Uniformed populace all our lives until now? I am busting a gut! How old are you, fella?
Leave it to AA to misconstrue the words of those she disagrees with.
But more informed about trivial matters, or significant matters?
Both.
We've never been an informed population Annie. But we're certainly more informed, more interested than previously. The fact that you've got people who actually know that the election is going on is a vast improvement over just 12 years ago. When the number of those involved was going down rapidly, when did things really start to pick up? Maybe 2004, when the internet was first widely used. Now, it's 2008 and we've got unprecedented numbers of people turning out. They know it's there turn to vote and there's an expectation that they will.
People aren't more informed in the sense that they know what they're voting for, but more informed as to what issues are out there and what they think they think about it. It's an improvement over what was pure party politics. How else do you explain Dixiecrats?
You'll also know that a lot of those young Deaniacs stayed home in their 'jammies when it came time to vote in '04. While it is true that young, first-time voters rose in '04 it wasn't nearly as large as anticipated. I just wonder how many of these Obama KoolAiders are going to turn out and vote for a candidate many of them consider only one half-step up the inner circle of hell that they reserve for the president if HRC claims the nomination.
Well, the Deaniacs just weren't excited about voting for Kerry. If they were actually voting for Howard Dean, that may have been entirely different. This is one reason why we need Obama to be the Democratic party candidate.
While I'll agree we're all 'way more informed' it definitely takes some perspicacity to discover information that truly threatens the status quo. That's what I do on newsvine, discover information that has the greatest chance of causing a fundamental paradigm shift and then share it.
For example, this belief in 'elections' and 'democracy' really cracks me up. The fact that we're all dreaming in a semi-conscious waking sleep doesn't really matter, it seems real right? The TV says we're having an election, it's saturating the airwaves and print media... we must be having an election - that means democracy.
It's a lie. An illusion, designed to keep you compliant and thus under control. Its a web of lies, compounded daily, and reinforced by our own desire to believe the world is as it seems. We believe the lies because we want to.
Knowledge, true objective knowledge, acquired by careful study, accumulation and cross-reference is the most potent weapon we have against them.
"When you hear hooves, think a horse, not a zebra."
If the world is not what it seems, why does it seem to be what it is not? It seems to seem the same to most everybody. Some say sorry theories a fact do make. I disagree.
Your logic makes sense with the premise, "everything being equal". Our reality is far from that premise. Everything is not equal and nothing is what it seems, at least not after careful research.
Using your metaphor, we have men with horse hooves clapping the ground to create the impression of horses. Zebra's aren't even in the picture. It's an illusion designed to keep you from seeing the truth.
This is what I can see from the evidence. Perspicacity is the art of discernment, of seperating true from false. We have been taught a lot of false, until this is realized, discarded, and then replaced by true knowledge we cannot draw right conclusions. It was done intentionally, by psychopaths @ the top of the heap, that wish to keep us all as their wage-slaves. The Matrix was an apt metaphor, as is Vampirism.
I highly doubt there is more voter interest in this election than with Reagan in Carter. Much more civil unrest at this time and the Soviet Union was getting an itchy finger. Reagan said what he meant and stood by what he said which is why he was so popular. Obama is too broad and general. When i see him talk all i get from his speeches is that he will change something. what i couldnt tell you.
Now what would be actually useful to see is individual statistically significant polls taken in each state to see how the electoral map is shaping up...
Right. Polls that won't change over the next 9 months as well.
Dude, no one is saying that they won't change, but they at least give a capture of where we are right now. A national popularity poll means little now and not much more on election day itself. State polls start to show us where the potential battleground states are...
lol of course they will change, but do you find no value in this?
why are people discounting this now?
we've been talking about these polls for quite a while now
they havent alll of a sudden gotten worse.. or further away from the election
if you find no value in the polls, then why even clic
Joules, I find value in polls taken closer to the actual event. But remember that Giuliani was polled to win nine months before the primaries began.
I see what Joules is saying in 3.3 and I agree with her. This poll is significant. I am for Senator Clinton, but a test of the waters is always a good thing.
It shows a trend.
If we can trust polls at all, and we do watch them, at least I do.
I am still laughing at 2.0, though.
Ya gotta laugh!
If you go to surveyusa.com, they've got a good number of head-to-heads in specific states (under election polls).
Ahhh. I remember President Dukakis well. --
"The parallels . . . are very close indeed," Dukakis said, invoking the time-for-a-change theme that will be one of his anthems this fall. "Then we had had eight rather amiable but sleepy years of Republicans in the White House. We had a country that was ripe for change."
Sorry if I came across as, well, cross, but while the current polls do add some value, they really aren't worth but so much at this stafe.
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