Deputy PM Seen As Likely Ahern Successor

DUBLIN — Ireland's combative deputy prime minister and finance minister, Brian Cowen, is the overwhelming favorite to replace the charming Bertie Ahern as Ireland's leader next month. The country faces a huge change in style if not substance.

While the nation largely calls Ahern by his first name, friend and foe alike have christened Cowen the unflattering "Biffo" — a sobriquet that the sharp-witted Cowen embraced even though it stands for "Big ignorant (expletive) from Offaly."

Cowen, 48, has been a parliament member representing his native Offaly, an overwhelmingly rural county in the Irish midlands, for half his life. He won a 1984 by-election caused by the death of his predecessor, his father.

He has amassed a remarkable breadth of government experience despite his relative youth, leading six government departments since 1992. He displayed a fierce loyalty to Ahern while closely aligning himself with the premier's consensus-building policies of the past decade.

While Ahern is infamous for speaking with baffling imprecision, Cowen often favors brusque, brutal efficiency.

He has cultivated a debating style akin to a bull in a china shop, lashing out verbally at anyone who dares criticize the government — a skill put on vibrant display during last year's election campaign, when he skewered Ahern's critics with relish.

Privately, friends say Cowen is good fun and quick with a joke or a song, but his public demeanor usually ranges from sour to downright grumpy.

As controller of Ireland's purse strings since 2004, he appears the best-placed candidate to guide the country through its increasingly difficult economic climate.

Ireland has slashed unemployment by two-thirds and wooed hundreds of foreign companies over the past decade, experiencing Europe's fastest-growing property boom. But the strongly U.S.-linked economy has swung into reverse in recent months.

Hours after Ahern announced his resignation effective May 6, Cowen's department revealed the latest figures of government red ink, a rapid change from the past decade of surpluses.

"It is crucial that the agreed budget spending limits are adhered to this year," said Cowen, who until this year was known for overseeing the biggest spending increases in Irish history.

A year ago, after winning his third term in office, Ahern endorsed Cowen as his favored successor as both prime minister and leader of Fianna Fail, the centrist nationalist party that has won the most seats in parliament in every election since 1932.

It wasn't immediately clear whether Cowen will face a challenger. If there is a contest, the winner will require the most votes of Fianna Fail's 78 members of parliament. Any potential rivals kept quiet Wednesday.

But Ireland's legion of gamblers, who usually know the political pulse in this tight-knit country, bet on Cowen. Within four hours, Ireland's major bookmaker, Paddy Power, slashed its odds on a Cowen victory from 1-to-5, already a heavy favorite, to a prohibitive 1-to-20. This means a bettor would have to risk $20 to just to win $1.

Cowen has never been embroiled in any personal scandal — beyond admitting in an interview last year that he had smoked marijuana as a youth. That revelation inspired Dublin wits to twist his nickname into "Spliffo."

However, just last week Cowen suffered embarrassment by association when his older brother Christy, who runs the family pub in the Offaly village of Clara, was exposed as a tax dodger. Cowen, true to form, said he was glad the system had caught his brother because it would encourage public confidence in Ireland's system of tax compliance.

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On the Net:

Fianna Fail site on Cowen: http://www.fiannafail.ie/person.phpx?pid39&bid39&relTD&aid135

Paddy Power betting on next prime minister: http://tinyurl.com/33o6rx

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