WASHINGTON — Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight. The former first lady is clearly suffering more as Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House.
Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in an AP-Yahoo News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet.
But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton — widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped.
The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories.
In a dramatic reversal, the AP-Yahoo News poll found that a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Obama has the better chance of defeating Republican Sen. John McCain in November.
In late January, before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus victories, 56 percent of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger nominee, compared with 33 percent for Obama. Now, Obama leads on that question, 56 percent to 43 percent.
Still, the poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some worrisome signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as "not at all honest," for example, jumped from 18 percent last fall to 27 percent in April. It came as he was put on the defensive over incendiary comments by his former pastor. But many holding such views are Republicans or conservative independents who would be unlikely to vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in the fall anyway.
The most encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now give him that role. About one-third of them still prefer Clinton, but they have lost confidence in her electability.
Many who have switched to thinking Obama has the best chance of winning come from groups that have leaned toward him all year, including black, younger and better-educated voters.
"I would love to vote for Hillary," said Nancy Costello of Bellevue, Ky., one of the more than 1,800 randomly selected adults whose opinions are rechecked every few months in the AP-Yahoo News poll. "I'm 67, and I'll probably never get another chance to vote for a woman."
But Obama now appears to be the stronger candidate, she said, and electing a Democrat in November is paramount. If McCain wins and continues many of President Bush's economic and foreign policies, Costello said, "I think I would just sit down and cry."
By tracking the same group throughout the campaign, the AP-Yahoo News poll can gauge how individual views change. It suggests that Clinton has paid a price for hammering Obama since early February on several issues as she tries to overcome his lead in delegates and the popular vote. Among those Democrats who no longer consider her the more electable of the two, most now see her as less likable, decisive, strong, honest, experienced and ethical than they did in January.
Meanwhile, those same voters are more likely to see Obama as strong, honest and refreshing than before.
Beulah Barton of Leesburg, Fla., said she initially backed Clinton, partly because she liked Bill Clinton's record as president.
"But the more I hear her talk, and the more I hear him talk, the more put off I am," said Barton, 69. "I think she's brash, I think she's rude. I get the feeling that she feels she deserves to be president" and doesn't need "to earn it."
Barton said she likes Obama, and ignores e-mails suggesting that he refuses to salute the flag or is somehow threatening "because of his name."
"People try to make him look like a traitor," she said. "I think he has risen above most of that stuff."
Some misinformation sticks, however. The great majority of the poll's participants said this month they did not know the religious affiliation of Clinton (a Methodist) or Obama (United Church of Christ). But 15 percent ventured that Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is a Muslim.
That group includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't necessarily worry them.
Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.
Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."
If Obama wins the nomination, the poll indicates he will need to mend his image a bit as he battles McCain for independents and soft Republicans. His favorability rating among all voters has declined, with those ranking him as "very unfavorable" growing from 17 percent in January to 25 percent in April. Most of them are Republicans and independents.
In January, 30 percent of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably. That grew to 43 percent in April. Among the coveted independents, 12 percent had a very unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has nearly doubled to 23 percent.
Obama would be the first black president, and the survey detected some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president. It produced an estimate of about 13 percent of Republicans who would feel that way, but suggested very few if any Democrats would now be uncomfortable. In November, about 5 percent of Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for president.
For Allen Lovell, a moderate Democrat in Everett, Wash., race is unimportant, but replacing Bush with a Democrat is vital. And lately he has concluded that Obama probably has the better chance of beating McCain.
"I am leaning towards him, not because he's black — because I'm white — but because we definitely need a change," said Lovell, 50.
He said the Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that Obama is "either Christian or Muslim," said: "I don't think we're getting enough information on religion" from the candidates.
The survey of 1,844 adults was conducted April 2-14 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 863 Democrats, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.3 points, and 668 Republicans, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 points.
The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks. It initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods, and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
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AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
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On the Net:
He said the Democratic campaign has lasted too long, but there is one topic he'd like to hear more about. Lovell, who guessed that Obama is "either Christian or Muslim," said: "I don't think we're getting enough information on religion" from the candidates.
Really? I think we've gotten far too much information. Everyone should know by now that anyone running for president is likely a Christian. It should only matter to those of us that would rather not vote for someone so delusional, but it doesn't matter - as they all fall under said category.
I would prefer that we stuck to the constitution where the religious practice or lack of it is not to be considered as a qualification for the office of President.
Not enough information?!!! They played Pastor Wright's clip over and over and over and over again!! How much more information do you need? He's NOT a Muslim!!
I seriously do not understand how people think sometimes.
They played Pastor Wright's clip over and over and over and over again!!
But isn't he pastor of a muslim church?
The blame for the "Obama is a muslim" controversy lays squarely at the feet of Faux News.
But isn't he pastor of a muslim church?
Big grin. Yea. I think that's a pretty accurate description of the probable response. We all know it's called a synagogue.
We all know it's called a synagogue.
That's one of the funniest things I've read in days, Claus. XD
But isn't he pastor of a muslim church?
My favorite one is, "Can you really trust someone with a middle name of Hussein?"
And this from someone who, in all other instances, seems to be a rational and intelligent person.
But 15 percent ventured that Obama, whose father was Kenyan, is a Muslim.
That group includes more Democrats than Republicans, and it doesn't necessarily worry them.
Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.
Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."
What gives? 15 percent is buying into it, proving that if you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes the truth in the mind of at least a significant percentile?
Claus, I don't think that stat says so much about the people spreading the lie but about the people who believe it. I bet they're the same people who would never vote for a black candidate.
On Newsvine, it's funny that those who were writing about Obama being a muslim a few weeks ago are now talking up the Rev. Wright thing. You wonder if they think he's a muslim or a Christian.
No, they just hate the fact that he's different and would base their views on anything that would cast him as anything but a normal person.
There is a lot of confusion about his religion and a lot of it has to do with Dr. Wright's association with Luois Farrakhan and the Hamas who apparently has been given some permission in the past to distribute their views on the church literature. So, it isn't out of the blue as some would suggest. It doesn't help to give a "Chickens have come home to roost" sermon right after 9/11 either, which in some people's minds comes across as ROOTING for the Muslims to get back at America.
My question there would be, why does it matter whether he's a Muslim or not? I could just as easily vote for a Muslim as I could for a Christian, as long as he's the best candidate. And I think a lot of people feel that way, and that's why his numbers seem to be unaffected by the "scandal".
Dr. Wright's association with Luois Farrakhan
So far as I know, Farrakhan is not part of that church. Obama has rejected his endorsement. What else do people need to hear? And why are people dwelling on it so much anyway?
This is the land of the free. Congress shall make no law advocating a religion. Any natural born citizen can be President. If that were a Muslim Obama or a Christian Obama makes very little difference in an increasingly diverse population.
Fred...There is a lot of confusion about his religion and a lot of it has to do with Dr. Wright's association with Luois Farrakhan and the Hamas who apparently has been given some permission in the past to distribute their views on the church literature. So, it isn't out of the blue as some would suggest.
Any confusion about Obama's religion was created by American media. It didn't come out of the blue it took a whole lot of media folks with large audiences to create that confusion. If we had free press instead of corporate reporters people would get real facts from the start.
A misinformed and uninformed public is a key in American politics. This isn't defensible as a problem with voters but a reflection of the distorted reporting that helps keep corporate hacks in Washington. It's exactly the same as the mistaken belief of a link between Saddam and Osama Bin Laden. It takes a lot of conditioning of the public to get the wrong facts to be accepted as true!!
In many cases Younger voters are far more sophisticated these days then their parents and will not be influenced by the Non-issue of Obama's religious affiliation and will be talking to their parents as to why it's a No-issue.
Other points that I see everyone overlooking are that Poll results are only as accurate as the sample taken. It's important to note that polls only contact off a list that they pay for, and that there are only a few sources that sell the same old list to the polling agencies. Homes and residences with "Land Line" phones, not cell phones. What percentage of college students and new younger voters have Land Lines, and how many use their cells exclusively? The media is still stuck using the same criteria as they have in the past,
Having said that, I foresee this election being be a big surprise to a great many people.
This is becoming a civil war of the insiders, class elites, one fueled by the corrupt performance of the corporate media, and the public which has embraced Obama, perceived as an outsider, even if incorrectly. The Corporate media and the political class, ideological class were hell bent on promoting their phony centrist candidates, the BOMB, BOMB, BOMB, BOMBA IRAN McCain, and Hillary Clinton, which in fact are cororate, and imperial class thugs, cancidates, that voted for the illegal war in Iraq, just as the corrupt media which cheered on the lies into the illegal War with Iran, and now replay the same warmongering with Iran.
The corporate media talks about bruises of Obama, but fails to note that the bruises are clearly their own black eyes, with their superficial, gotcha ideological thuggish, manipulating moderators, that began as soon as the Presidential race began, trying to marginalize the anti war sentiment, and their candidates Kucinich, Gravel and Edwards, with the same rotten tactics. The Tim Russerts, Wolf Blitzers, and now ABC moderators will be remembered for their dirty tactics, and ideological class rot.
NBC, MSNBC, our masters of corruption, class exclusion, disinvited Kucinich, after inviting him to the debates. Watch, these corporate ideological thugs, along with their democratic hacks, will resort to the same tactics to filter out democracy, anti war sentiment, by preventing debates with Nader, and its hand picked maidens, or mercenaries.
Obama has overcome these corporate, ideological class thugs, in spite of it all, and the Media will do everthing in its power, with its corrupt think tanks, the Amerikan Enterprise Instiutute, and the Brookings Institute, it "expert idiots" that show up with the pundit oligarchy, to promote Corporate tyranny, imperial foreign policies, and of course, polluted with the class nationalism, class imperialism of its Zionists propagandists who routinely trot out the need to threaten Iran, and start another imperial war of aggression. Obama has not acquitted himself of these right wing illiberal tactics, from its class thugs, who routinely demand Hitlerian blind nationalism, for both Amerikan Empire and Israeli fascist Zionist occupation. Obama has groveled and corrupted himself on these regressive foreign policy positions, fearful of the class hierarchy, its class elites, ideological thugs, who permeate the Corporate media and all insitutitions, the two class parties, and its corrupt judicial courts.
If and when Nader is allowed to take on Obama, it will be on this issue, alone, the corrupt, criminal class imperial ideology, of Amerikan occupation in Iraq, and the criminal occupation of Israel and its violent threats against Iran. Recently, Mr. Yahoooo, like McCain and Hillary, Netanyahooo of Israel, threatened Iran, and in duplictious, class form stated that Iran is not allowed to have either a nuclear program, nor nuclear weapons, and that all options were on the table for agression. Of course the fact that both Israel and AMerikan Empire have nuclear weapons, and have a history of aggressions, completely ignored by the Corporate Media thugs, becomes the excuse for another agression, mislabled, "pre-emptive strikes" like the Orwellian language of torture as "enhanced interrogation techniques". The imperial, corporate ideological rot of the corporate media will be seen clearly on this issue, with Obama, when he capitulates to this cynical charade, endlessly talking about ending the war in Iraq, by voting for endless financing, while at the same time playing along with these imperial propagandists for Israel and Amerika, to start another war, in which both class parties will participate in. Such is the rot of Amerikan political culture, and Nader, the greens, socialists, real internationalist will have the last say against this duplicitous charade. The corporate propagandistic media is an arm of the corporate fascist state, and if Iran is attacked, watch them carefully and their lies.
Eric Albert Although you appear to be proposing its counter through the hyperbole and overdetermined language, i, actually, do agree with what's incisive here. it is for that reason that i ask, if these are ideas that you actually support, would it be possible to present them in a way that isn't so easily dismissed. If they are ideas you are hoping to undermine and make ridiculous through rhetorical over-gesturing, well, you are doing a good job.
respectfully
This poll sounds like much ado about nothing.
The poll is much ado about nothing? What do you mean? Measuring the attitudes of voters is much ado about nothing?
This poll sounds like much ado about nothing.
this comment sounds like much ado about wishful thinking and denial.
Obama IS the one with the best chance to win the coming convention battle. Dean's begging for delegates, superdelegates....someone anyone to end this before that, but my bet is on the Clintons utilizing the convention in any way that benefits them first, in ANY way.
This all misses the point - the delegates are largely decided, in favour of Obama. It's not like we hold all the primaries in August, most of them have been held already.
If Clinton stages some kind of coup at the convention it will be a disaster for the Democratic Party.
AP-Yahoo Poll: Obama overtaking Clinton despite bruises media obsession with shiny colors
Fixed.
I don't care about what religion Obama or Hillary practice, or what race or gender have to do with it. I want to hear what they are going to do to repair what 8 years of Bush has done to this country. I don't trust Hillary at all. Please read "American Evita", I was appalled.
If PA decides to give Obama the nod...then it's all but over for Ms Duck and cover. No convention will save her especially if he can pull off another winning streak.
Say goodnight Hillary...
I was very disappointed with ABC. I read a poll that 82% of the people who watched the debate were disappointed because of all the dump tabloid stuff, rather than asking questions of substance.
Randi Estes, a Democrat from Ada, Okla., said she prefers Clinton but feels Obama is likely to win the nomination. "He's gotten very strong media coverage, and Bill Clinton's not helping her a bit," said Estes, 36, who has four children under the age of 6.
Speaking of Obama, she said, "I have a sense he's a Muslim."
Oh good Gravy. I really hate how my state is represented. Really really do. Both in media (like this) and in Congress (Coburn, Inhoffe? For heaven's sake!).
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