Analysis: W.Va. win won't help Clinton much

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NEW YORK — Hillary Rodham Clinton's shellacking of Barack Obama in the West Virginia primary Tuesday may burnish her image as a champion of the economically disadvantaged and bolster her determination to campaign through the final contests. But it does little to alter the unforgiving political landscape she faces.

The former first lady's lopsided victory in West Virginia had long been expected, given the demographic makeup of the state: It is 95 percent white, has no urban core and counts among its residents some of the poorest and least educated of any state. It also had just 28 delegates at stake.

Clinton has performed strongly among white working-class voters throughout the campaign in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama has struggled to adapt his message of hope and change to address the economic anxieties those voters face. That, in turn, has allowed the former first lady to openly question Obama's chances in a general election against Republican John McCain.

In her speech Tuesday night, Clinton was expected to make a direct pitch to superdelegates on the electability argument, hoping they would reconsider the two candidacies.

The Associated Press made its West Virginia call based on surveys of voters as they left the polls. Not surprisingly, even before voting was done, the Clinton campaign seized on the expected outcome there to suggest Obama is having trouble winning primaries in important swing states.

"Hillary has predicted victory against Sen. McCain in West Virginia based on the strength of her economic message," the campaign said in a memo to reporters. "Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy."

But none of that changes the central problem for Clinton: Since her loss in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana last Tuesday, the New York senator has been battling the growing realization that her once-formidable candidacy may have finally run out of steam.

Saddled with more than $20 million in debt and facing a near mathematical impossibility of catching Obama among pledged delegates and in the popular vote, Clinton has watched a steady stream of superdelegates migrate toward the Illinois senator despite his apparent problems winning key party constituencies.

Superdelegate Roy Romer, a former Colorado governor and Democratic National Committee chairman under President Clinton, announced his support for Obama on Tuesday.

While Romer acknowledged a "great personal friendship" with Hillary Clinton, he said he believed the time had come to move forward to the general election.

"As I watched the campaign unfold, I realized there was a different kind of winning possibility with Senator Obama," Romer said. "I became convinced Senator Obama is the most electable of the two."

Obama, flush with cash and running a robust campaign in the final primary states, has turned much of his focus to McCain and the general election contest. He was spending Tuesday night in Missouri, an important swing state, before flying to Michigan on Wednesday.

Clinton's advisers say she is well aware of the daunting task she faces but wants to carry on, believing she owes it to her supporters and to the voters eager to participate in the remaining contests.

Clinton is favored to win Kentucky's primary next Tuesday and Puerto Rico's on June 1. She also wants to see the stalemate over disputed results in Michigan and Florida resolved, hopefully at a meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee May 31.

Steve Grossman, a former DNC chairman who is supporting Clinton, says she has more than earned the right to continue her fight to the finish.

"Hillary, who is absolutely mindful of the daunting nature of the math, feels an obligation to her supporters and a belief that her voters have to be major participants in the fall campaign for a Democrat to win," Grossman said. "She's determined not to break faith with those voters — not just women, but a lot of them are. It's about fairness and respect for Hillary and her army of activists, fairness and respect for the voters who've yet to be counted."

___

EDITOR'S NOTE — Beth Fouhy covers presidential politics for The Associated Press.

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{"commentId":1773333,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
Since the Pennsylvania primary two weeks ago, Clinton has picked up 11.5 superdelegate endorsements to Obama's 22, according to an Associated Press count.

Great news.

{"commentId":1773333,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#1 - Tue May 6, 2008 8:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":1773385,"authorDomain":"bluecollarbytes"}

These are the Best days of the McCain campaign.

{"commentId":1773385,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"bluecollarbytes"}
  • 1 vote
#1.1 - Tue May 6, 2008 9:09 PM EDT
{"commentId":1774486,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

Seriously.

{"commentId":1774486,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
  • 2 votes
#1.2 - Wed May 7, 2008 7:58 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1773343,"authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}
Great news.

For who?
McCain?

{"commentId":1773343,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}
  • 1 vote
Reply#2 - Tue May 6, 2008 8:55 PM EDT
{"commentId":1773370,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

... Obama.

{"commentId":1773370,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
  • 3 votes
#2.1 - Tue May 6, 2008 9:03 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1773377,"authorDomain":"bluecollarbytes"}

There's a headline I didn't expect to see just a couple months ago-"Racially Lopsided".

It was never news in prior elections when African-Americans voted in a lopsided fashion for the white Democrat, not in the mainstream news anyway.

{"commentId":1773377,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"bluecollarbytes"}
  • 7 votes
Reply#3 - Tue May 6, 2008 9:06 PM EDT
{"commentId":1773548,"authorDomain":"djehuty"}

That's such a good point.

{"commentId":1773548,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"djehuty"}
  • 3 votes
#3.1 - Tue May 6, 2008 10:12 PM EDT
{"commentId":1773589,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

Where Eric when you need him ? "rassistisch einseitig" sounds just as weird as "Racially Lopsided"

Geez could you actually use that word when you are talking with someone ? "I'm sorry dear, I just cannot go out with you any long, your views are just so Racially Lopsided"

{"commentId":1773589,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}
  • 3 votes
#3.2 - Tue May 6, 2008 10:25 PM EDT
{"commentId":1773778,"authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}
It was never news in prior elections when African-Americans voted in a lopsided fashion for the white Democrat, not in the mainstream news anyway.

You are talking about a Democrat vs. a Republican.

These results tonight are a disaster for the Democratic Party and Barack Obama. His campaign at this point has entirely cast it's lot with the white elites and the monolithic black vote. As Paul Begala said tonight

"We cannot win with egg heads and African-Americans. OK, that is the Dukakis Coalition, which carried ten states and gave us four years of the first George Bush."

Obama did not properly deal with the Wright situation and he has not told the truth about it. Initially, he gave Wright a pass and tried to blame all the problems of 'race relations' on working class whites and their resentments. This has not sat well with people, in combination with the 'bitter' remarks.

How is Obama planning to win the election?

{"commentId":1773778,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}
  • 2 votes
#3.3 - Tue May 6, 2008 11:33 PM EDT
{"commentId":1774151,"authorDomain":"karlshea"}

Hopefully on issues instead of meaningless insignificant bull@!$%# like Wright.

{"commentId":1774151,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"karlshea"}
    #3.4 - Wed May 7, 2008 2:44 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774390,"authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

    The party is split in half, and Obama's half does not include the 'white working class'. It probably wouldn't include the 'black working class' either except for , well, the obvious.

    It seems a lot of people with Obama are happy to cast their lot with things as they are, and so we will see what happens.

    As for Wright not being an issue, that is your opinion. I don't want a President of the United States that is a member of a racially separatist, racially divisive church. If you do, I feel sorry for you.

    {"commentId":1774390,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}
    • 1 vote
    #3.5 - Wed May 7, 2008 7:03 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774403,"authorDomain":"mentalshift"}

    John-

    That is exactly the problem with Clinton and McCain.

    The cold war is over. The world changes every day - the demographics in the U.S. are not the same today as they were 10 years ago. The same conditions don't apply over time because circumstances change over time!

    Khrushchev: "We will bury you."
    Clinton: "We can totally obliterate them."

    a racially separatist, racially divisive church.

    That's why you shouldn't vote Republican. Or did you mean the largely white United Church of Christ, Obama's church?

    {"commentId":1774403,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"mentalshift"}
    • 2 votes
    #3.6 - Wed May 7, 2008 7:11 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774570,"authorDomain":"Henryvii"}

    I don't want a President of the United States that is a member of a racially separatist, racially divisive church. If you do, I feel sorry for you.

    I don't want a President that's a member of a church at all - but we can't get everything we want.

    {"commentId":1774570,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"Henryvii"}
    • 2 votes
    #3.7 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:39 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774653,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}
    I don't want a President of the United States that is a member of a racially separatist, racially divisive church.

    So what would be the "correct church" for the President to belong to ?

    Catholic parish ?
    Lutheran ?
    Baptist ?
    Scientology ?
    Mormon ?
    no church ?

    {"commentId":1774653,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}
    • 2 votes
    #3.8 - Wed May 7, 2008 9:03 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774728,"authorDomain":"benb"}
    As for Wright not being an issue, that is your opinion. I don't want a President of the United States that is a member of a racially separatist, racially divisive church. If you do, I feel sorry for you.

    There is no religious test to be president. And Barack Obama has denounced Rev. Wright, what more do people want from him? A lot of people are members of churches that bash gay people - is that just not as divisive for you?

    Obama's half does not include the 'white working class'.

    Have the Democrats ever won a general election because the white working class people came out in droves to support them?

    How is Obama planning to win the election?

    By winning votes from the college educated (he is ahead of Clinton) by winning highly populated suburban areas (he wins the big cities), and by getting the support of a lot of the Clinton backers when they stop whining in November.

    {"commentId":1774728,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"benb"}
    • 1 vote
    #3.9 - Wed May 7, 2008 9:23 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774787,"authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}

    I will post this to a number of threads.

    If Barack Obama had received ANYTHING LESS THAN 77% of the black vote in NC, Hillary Clinton would have won the state. I did the calculation.

    This election is completely racialized, much of it based on a smear campaign conducted against Hillary and Bill Clinton by Obama supporters.

    45% of blacks (and whites) in NC said in exit polls that 'Rev. Wright' DID effect their vote. So what do we see? Almost half of blacks have their vote influenced by Rev. Wright, and they vote over 90% for Obama, the man who sat in those pews listening to Wright for 20 years and was so late to condemn his pastor. Apparently the great majority of blacks in NC agree with Rev Wright. These are tragic conclusions for race relations in this country.

    The election has become entirely determined by race, which can only work to McCain's benefit.

    http://johnrussell.newsvine.com/_news/2008/05/07/1473789-race-trumps-all-in-2008-election

    {"commentId":1774787,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"JohnRussell"}
    • 2 votes
    #3.10 - Wed May 7, 2008 9:39 AM EDT
    {"commentId":1774809,"authorDomain":"benb"}
    This election is completely racialized, much of it based on a smear campaign conducted against Hillary and Bill Clinton by Obama supporters.

    Yeah...they haven't attacked Obama at all.

    It's worth noting that no Democrat would ever win a general election without winning a significant percentage of the "black vote."

    {"commentId":1774809,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"benb"}
      #3.11 - Wed May 7, 2008 9:45 AM EDT
      {"commentId":1777196,"authorDomain":"mentalshift"}
      Apparently the great majority of blacks in NC agree with Rev Wright.

      Come on John. The numbers were nearly identical for Obama and Hillary supporters. Basically it came down to "Wright mattered, so I stuck with my candidate."

      {"commentId":1777196,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"mentalshift"}
      • 2 votes
      #3.12 - Wed May 7, 2008 7:31 PM EDT
      {"commentId":1837044,"authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}
      Hopefully on issues instead of meaningless insignificant bull@!$%# like Wright.

      Here's to "Hoping" you can "Change" that "non issue" into something more to your taste.
      But then the "genie" has flown...

      {"commentId":1837044,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}
      • 1 vote
      #3.13 - Sat May 24, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
      Reply
      {"commentId":1774406,"authorDomain":"onlineapps"}

      They said this about basically every primary and caucus since (and including) Super Tuesday.

      {"commentId":1774406,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"onlineapps"}
      • 1 vote
      Reply#4 - Wed May 7, 2008 7:13 AM EDT
      {"commentId":1774518,"authorDomain":"djehuty"}

      They were right.

      {"commentId":1774518,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"djehuty"}
        #4.1 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:10 AM EDT
        Reply
        {"commentId":1774514,"authorDomain":"njb"}

        Even James Carville has changed his tune this morning---"if he is the nominee, of course we will support him"

        They know....He knows....it is just a question of how she goes about quiting. Give her credit, quitting is not in her nature, but it is time.

        I am sure that more than one of the loyal party leaders have pointed out to her that if any one is tearing the party to shreds (if)--it is her. She needs to stop before, as James said, "We rip defeat, from the jaws of victory."

        {"commentId":1774514,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"njb"}
          Reply#5 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:09 AM EDT
          {"commentId":1838490,"authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}

          Well, if she [Hillary] and Carville vote for Obama that will make all the difference.....You really think voters are likes toys... and candidates are just a "minor" preference...Don't you?
          Edwards, Obama, Clinton....all the same thing!

          Hardly, but.... OK!

          {"commentId":1838490,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"gpnavonod"}
            #5.1 - Sun May 25, 2008 1:27 AM EDT
            {"commentId":1840553,"authorDomain":"njb"}

            Just where did I say the voters are toys?

            Stop making things up about what I said. I said---scroll up. Read it again. In the end--everyone in he party will support the Democratic nominee.

            {"commentId":1840553,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"njb"}
            • 1 vote
            #5.2 - Sun May 25, 2008 10:53 PM EDT
            {"commentId":1840558,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
            gpnavonod
            You really think voters are likes toys.

            Where was that implied in the comment?

            {"commentId":1840558,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
            • 2 votes
            #5.3 - Sun May 25, 2008 10:57 PM EDT
            Reply
            {"commentId":1842295,"authorDomain":"njb"}

            What are we arguing about? I forgot.

            {"commentId":1842295,"threadId":"260744","contentId":"1473024","authorDomain":"njb"}
              Reply#6 - Mon May 26, 2008 5:36 PM EDT
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