Evidence scant that Wright hurt Obama much in Ind., N.C.

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WASHINGTON — The reaction — or lack of it — by Indiana and North Carolina voters to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's incendiary comments emphasizes how deeply entrenched the racial lines of support are for the two Democratic presidential rivals.

It doesn't seem likely that the renewed focus on Wright has helped Barack Obama, and it is all but certain that he'll hear more about it from Republicans should he win his party's nomination. But for now, there's little evidence it hurt him much in this week's Democratic contests.

After all the attention to Wright and Obama's disavowal of his former pastor, exit polls in the two states found that:

_Six in 10 white voters in both states supported Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is waging an increasingly long-shot struggle to become the party nominee. That's close to the average 57 percent of whites who had backed the New York senator in Democratic primaries since Super Tuesday, which was Feb. 5. It's also slightly below the 63 percent of whites who voted for her in Pennsylvania and 69 percent in Mississippi, the most recent contests before Tuesday's voting.

— Whites lacking college degrees favored Clinton over Obama by 31 percentage points in Indiana and 45 points in North Carolina. Since Super Tuesday, she has triumphed over Obama among this group by an average 30 points, including 41 points in Pennsylvania and 55 points in Mississippi.

_White men leaned toward Clinton on Tuesday, as she got 59 percent in Indiana and 55 percent in North Carolina. Clinton got 57 percent of their votes in Pennsylvania and 67 percent in Mississippi.

_About nine in 10 blacks in Indiana and North Carolina voted for Obama, slightly stronger than his usual showing with them. It mattered little whether they said the Wright situation influenced them or not.

Pollsters said there was not enough data to draw conclusions about whether the attention on Wright drove people away from Obama, the Illinois senator, or drew some toward him because of how he denounced the pastor.

"With the singular exception of Wisconsin, we've seen these two demographic coalitions facing each other and enduring across every contest," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, referring to the groups of voters who backed each candidate.

Other than liberal Vermont, Wisconsin is the only state where Obama has won more than half of whites who have not graduated college.

It's true that in both Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday, nearly half of white voters said Wright influenced their pick of a candidate. And of that group in each state, just over eight in 10 voted for Clinton — clearly more than the six in 10 whites who backed her overall.

Even so, those numbers did not seem to change how whites overall voted.

Wright's more incendiary remarks from past sermons became an Internet sensation in March and there was a renewed flurry of attention to Wright late last month. That's when he made a speaking tour and reiterated comments that the federal government may have developed the AIDS virus to infect blacks and that the U.S. invited the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Obama denounced the remarks last week.

Yet exit polls gave little indication that late-deciding white voters moved decisively toward Clinton.

In Indiana, about a quarter of whites who picked their candidate within the past month said Wright was a very important factor. Of that group, 87 percent voted for Clinton.

Yet the same proportion of whites in the state who chose their candidate more than a month ago said Wright was very influential, and 86 percent of them voted for Clinton — essentially no difference.

The same was true in North Carolina, where 25 percent of whites who said Wright was very important in their decision picked their candidate within the past month. Ninety-two percent of them voted for Clinton.

That was little different from the 30 percent of whites there who chose their candidate more than a month ago and also said Wright affected them a great deal. Of that group, 91 percent voted for Clinton.

The figures are from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks conducted in 35 precincts in each state.

The data was based on 1,881 people who voted in Indiana's Democratic contest and 2,316 in North Carolina, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for both states.

___

AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson contributed to this report.

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{"commentId":1778173,"authorDomain":"djehuty"}
The reaction — or lack of it — by Indiana and North Carolina voters to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's incendiary comments emphasizes how deeply entrenched the racial lines of support are for the two Democratic presidential rivals.

Nope. It means voters are smarter than the press.

{"commentId":1778173,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"djehuty"}
  • 11 votes
Reply#1 - Thu May 8, 2008 5:08 AM EDT
{"commentId":1778306,"authorDomain":"jdoyle"}
Nope. It means voters are smarter than the press.

Exactly right Djehuty; the smear job just didn't work and the press feels like all their work was in vain.

{"commentId":1778306,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"jdoyle"}
  • 6 votes
#1.1 - Thu May 8, 2008 6:45 AM EDT
{"commentId":1778512,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
Nope. It means voters are smarter than the press.

Thank Jebus, I was convinced that I needed to move to Switzerland.

{"commentId":1778512,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}
  • 5 votes
#1.2 - Thu May 8, 2008 8:50 AM EDT
{"commentId":1778661,"authorDomain":"wood-s"}

Allow me a moment to bask in the schadenfreude! This is almost as much fun as watching Congressman Hyde rant pompously about Clinton's supposedly "impeachable" offenses, only to see the American people shrug, say "So?" and vote a lot of his Republican colleagues out of office.

{"commentId":1778661,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"wood-s"}
  • 3 votes
#1.3 - Thu May 8, 2008 9:36 AM EDT
{"commentId":1780038,"authorDomain":"LiberalRebel"}
Nope. It means voters are smarter than the press.

I totally agree with you "Djehuty".

What is specifically telling is how "So many" out and in here that in fact seem to be scared of Clinton not winning this (She could, but only by doing a "Rovian backed Bush 2000/2004 dirty trick") election.

No I say Go Obama Gooooo!

{"commentId":1780038,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"LiberalRebel"}
  • 3 votes
#1.4 - Thu May 8, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1778252,"authorDomain":"angela593"}

Mr. Fram- Who pays these people? Polls divide, analyze, point out differences. We the people of the USA living real lives avoid polls, we work for unity, consensus, individual inclusion. Polling people play the polling game. This random sampling does not represent a large enough segment of the population to be valid or interesting for that matter. The diverse group that voted for Obama avoided the exit poll people. Perhaps we do not want to be another statistic. We are sick of statistics. Statistics can be manipulated to say anything and people lie. Besides the Wright "thing" does not really bother any honest person who "lives" in the real world. We work with him, he is in our families, we deal with the real world, we sort through the cacophony of noise everyday of our lives and don't go off the deep end. Hey, knock your self out in the name of free press; the citizens of every race, gender, age, and creed are much more discerning than you know.

{"commentId":1778252,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"angela593"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#2 - Thu May 8, 2008 5:55 AM EDT
{"commentId":1778299,"authorDomain":"djehuty"}
we work for unity, consensus, individual inclusion

Oh yes!

{"commentId":1778299,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"djehuty"}
  • 1 vote
#2.1 - Thu May 8, 2008 6:36 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1778324,"authorDomain":"saleiseca"}

good morning.

I fail to understand (i) why you and fellow journalists insist on reminding everyone of the racial factor and (ii) how your data and arguments support your thesis that Rev. Wright's comments played or did not play a significant role in the Indiana and North Carolina results. To borrow a title, just move on...please...you will do all of us a great favor.

take care

{"commentId":1778324,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"saleiseca"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#3 - Thu May 8, 2008 7:08 AM EDT
{"commentId":1778329,"authorDomain":"miasma"}

Agreed. How about covering the 100k people that might be dead in Myanmar/Burma or that Scott Bloch is talking to the FBI. Instead of...

This just in, Barack Obama, still black!!!!!11
{"commentId":1778329,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"miasma"}
  • 4 votes
#3.1 - Thu May 8, 2008 7:18 AM EDT
{"commentId":1782734,"authorDomain":"Issywise"}

But......on the otherhand:

It isn't like racism hasn't been the single most murderous and destructive thing in American history. Willy Brown, the California politician, guesses about 6% of white people will never vote for a African-American for president for no other reason than his race. Since 80.2% of the population is white, six percent would be 4.812% of the whole population.

For the sake of making an argument--even though we know available information would modify the assumptions made somewhat, assume Brown's guesstimate is valid, assume that citizens vote in the same proportions regardless of race; under those assumptions the 4.812% of voters fixedly against any African-American candidate would have meant, in the last presidential election, that there were 5,883,514 automatic votes against a black candidate regardless of his qualification to be president and regardless of any comparison to his opponent.

If Brown is right Obama starts the general almost six million ignorant and hateful votes behind.

Let's plug-in some of the known modifications that would have to be applied to the above argument. Caucasian-American tend to vote in slightly greater proportion than African Americans; they also have higher proportion of their population of voting age. Those factors would skew the calculation above in one direction.

On the other hand, the past isn't destiny: There is nothing to say that African-American voters and other "non-whites" (only a nation with a racist history would need to class people as "non-whites) won't come out in higher proportions this election and all future elections.

Some aspects of human nature are almost immutable. Any trial lawyer will tell you that people of goodwill without a scintilla of racism in their soul still tend to sympathize more with people like themselves. That is why lawyers try to get jurors picked who have backgrounds similar to their clients. In courts of law, where citizens of goodwill are trying their hardest to act on reason and without prejudice, the tendency to associate oneself to someone like yourself is still an important factor effecting verdicts in law. So too, in all likelihood, in elections.

This factor will skew the election results-- not uniformly, not as a function of prejudice, but as a broad reflection of human nature and our very diversity.

There is also the likelihood that offering the choice between a minority candidate or a woman as an alternative to another white male will cause some unknown number of voters to opt for the minority or woman based on that characteristic alone. Hey, we've had to live with our national history. The vote is a tool to create a better future--race and gender discrimination of the past will likely engender some backlash in the election.

All of these factors are unquantifiable. Brown's guess is only that--a subjective stab.

However, all of this points out that the "racial factor" is a valid and newsworthy issue in this election cycle.

Of course, that doesn't mean the press will handle it with any responsibility or insight. It'll just sensationalize to draw-in readers: opting for the commercial role rather than the role the it asserts for itself in our democracy and in the marketplace of ideas.

So, do you think an enterprise with the scruples and the sensibilities of the American press has earned special legal protections so its practitioners shouldn't have to testify truthfully in courts of law--like the rest of us who owe duty to participate in the rule of law by proving truthful testimony?

Does the light reporters and press pundits throw on current event justify giving them permission to hide in darkness when courts of law are truth finding?

Should we put them up on a special legal pedestal as a reward for the good job they are doing?

Should we close the judicial avenue of truth-finding in honor to the truth they habitually illuminate?

{"commentId":1782734,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"Issywise"}
  • 1 vote
#3.2 - Fri May 9, 2008 11:11 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1782462,"authorDomain":"Issywise"}

Maybe in a nation filled with political preachers like Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, Bob Jones Jr. and the like, Rev. Wright didn't seem that so offensive by comparison?

{"commentId":1782462,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"Issywise"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#4 - Fri May 9, 2008 10:08 AM EDT
{"commentId":3423797,"authorDomain":"cricketticket"}

If Wright were white and ate four meals a day he coulda been Jerry Farwell.

Actually Wright is no different than the masses of white Americans who claim the U.S is turnig socialist or who hate black men...or those who preach love and hate gays.

Wright also has survived years of civil rights protests and grew up in world full of hate for him and his community based on his skin color- at one point negroes were not allowed to use water fountains- is he allowed to be paranoid and have feelings of ill towards man?

Yes.

He wouldn't be human if he wasn't.  Why should he have divine understanding maybe the teacher needs to learn. So go to hell to every person who needs an excuse to mask their fear and project their inner hated back on its victim. And for the record, Jesus wasn't Christian he was from the mid-east. Again you ignorant unlearned hypocrites Jesus was from the mid-east. You were taught to not cast stones and love thy neighbor-

{"commentId":3423797,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"cricketticket"}
    Reply#5 - Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:39 PM EDT
    {"commentId":3424150,"authorDomain":"cricketticket"}

    Does John McCain go to church or practice religion? When, where?

    {"commentId":3424150,"threadId":"261392","contentId":"1475654","authorDomain":"cricketticket"}
      Reply#6 - Fri Oct 10, 2008 6:01 PM EDT
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