Answer Desk: Offshore drilling’s impact

Thu Jun 19, 2008 1:15 PM EDT

business, technology, war, movies, oil, energy, water, prices, answer-desk, cold-war, flooding, production, river, smart, drilling, crude, at-the-movies, max, midwest-flooding, levee, steve-carell, barrel, mel-brooks, estimate, hannibal, hathaway, twain, carell, theres, barrels, citys, hark, refinanced, two-foot, hannibals

msnbc.com News — John Schoen

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With oil prices showing no signs of easing, the White House has proposed increased oil drilling in the U.S. Increasing oil production is a great idea. Unfortunately, it won’t provide any relief at the pump for millions of Americans trying to stretch their budgets so they can top off their gas tanks.

How is increasing American production by 1 million barrels a day, which is about 1.5 percent of daily global oil consumption, going to bring about the 25 percent drop in oil prices that many proponents of increased Alaskan and offshore drilling have suggested? … Shouldn't that just be one of many plans to increase supply and decrease demand that will really bring a drop in prices?
— Jon, Memphis, TN

It won’t. And, yes.

Every barrel of oil is going to be needed to meet growing global demand, and technology today allows oil producers to find and extract oil in places that until recently were not profitable or technically feasible. But there’s little evidence that there’s enough untapped oil within U.S. federal waters to make much of a difference in oil prices. Even if the oil is there, it would take a decade or longer until it can be tapped — offering little relief from the recent surge in oil prices.

Roughly 80 percent of U.S. proven reserves — and daily production — is clustered in just four states: Louisiana, Texas, Alaska and California. There’s likely more oil to be found offshore both U.S. coasts, especially in deep water where it has only relatively recently become technically possible and economically viable to extract. But it’s highly unlikely there’s enough there to make much of a difference in oil prices. Even if new discoveries were made, it would be decades before it began flowing and the price impact would be would be minimal.

The biggest known, untapped reserves are in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. (Current multinational negotiations over rights to oil under the Arctic Sea may bring additional reserves under U.S. control, but any potential production lies even further into the future.)

Even if Congress approved drilling in ANWR today, production would not begin for at least a decade, according to Energy Department estimates. The eventual impact on prices depends on exactly how much oil is under ANWR. Answering that question is an inexact science — you can’t stick a dipstick in the ground and determine how many barrels you’re dealing with.

So petroleum engineers like to talk in terms of low, mean and high estimates. The low estimate means there’s a 95 percent probability you’ll find so many barrels, the odds for the mean estimate are 50-50 and the high estimate comes with only a 5 percent chance you’ll eventually find that number of barrels. According to current estimates, the total volume of recoverable crude in ANWR is 5.7 billion barrels for the low estimate, 10.4 billion barrels for the mean estimate and 16.0 billion barrels for the high estimate.

But even in the best case, the price impact — decades from now — would amount to about 1 percent of current market prices. If work started today, production would peak in 2027 — when increased production would have the biggest impact on prices. According to Department of Energy projections, that impact would cut the prices of light sweet crude (in 2006 dollars) by 41 cents per barrel in 2026 for the low estimate, 75 cents per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high estimate.

The real problem with the debate over offshore drilling is that it’s a huge distraction from real solutions within a reasonable period of time.

Focusing on producing more oil is great, but what’s been missing from U.S. energy policy — since the Vice President preemptively dismissed it as “a personal virtue” — is conservation. The quickest way to supply a new barrel of oil to meet growing world demand is to figure out how to not use that barrel.

Said another way: producers don’t control prices, consumers do. If we all cut consumption, prices will fall. It’s happened before, and there’s absolutely no reason it can’t happen again.

Unfortunately, too many consumers in the US are happier to dismiss the demand side of the equation, blame greedy speculators or entertain delusions of oil industry price manipulation. (Never mind that Big Oil only controls only about 10 percent of global production — there are plenty of “documentaries” on YouTube “proving” that a price conspiracy is alive and well.)

Unless and until the public comes to terms with the true causes of the problem, it’s going to be hard to generate political support for real, effective solutions.

We had a subprime mortgage. We quickly refinanced and got out. But we lost a lot of money with fees when we refinanced and our payment went up a lot. Is there any way to recover our losses?
— Mike K., Portland Ore.

There may be, but the odds are not good.

If you can prove that the lender or mortgage broker engaged in predatory lending — which unfortunately, usually comes down to “he said, she said” — you may be able to sue them and recover the money you lost. If the evidence of predatory lending is strong enough, you may be able to negotiate a settlement with the mortgage broker or lender without going to court.

These folks know the law much better than you do, of course, which is why they were very careful to make you sign a disclosure statement saying you understood the ruinous terms of the loan. Which raises the question: If you really did understand that this loan would end up leaving you broke, why would you sign the papers?

In addition to being hard to prove, recovering money for predatory lending probably also means paying for a lawyer. So unless there’s a lot of money involved, it may not be worth it.

If the money lost won't cover the cost of an attorney, you still may be able to get some help from your state’s attorney general’s office. Not all states are pursuing these cases, but some are. Check out the Web site and see if they have a “mortgage fraud” unit — or call the consumer hotline to find out.

If I have only had a credit card and never a car loan or mortgage and my credit score is in the mid 500's, will getting a car loan and paying it on time increase my score?
— Mitchel

Yes — as long as you can afford the loan. Anything you can do to build a regular history of on-time payment will help. The negative impact of past late payments or defaults will also diminish with time.

But it could take awhile. There’s no quick fix – despite the “credit repair” scams you see on the Internet or in your email box.

For more on how to fix your credit, check out the Web site for Fair Isaac & Company, which invented the FICO score system.

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9.14. 2008 the democray in democratic republic ha turned in peril_some condition, us district courts side with executive depts of usa and try to keep watch dog status in democracy closed or eye of justice blind folded but we the people of u s constitution may not sit immobile. we must speak out truth, if required we may have to forget to weep and engage in dramatical cry , as the democratic system has turne biased to rich and powerfuls, human_gods in politics, national bureaucraccies, some devil , all of those entities have turned democracy into Jungle democracy or democracy of wilderness,i e no rules whatsoever, ie again kill for animal living rule being powerful animals kill any relatively weaker animals for feed of to serve animal intent. gop of usaplace a non us born as native born in usa viz mccain who may be cormed panamian resident but being an influence peddling agent of arizona he got a resolution passed in us senate, which was non binding as law and illegal attempt to make mccain, j s as us born, but in 1936 there was no u s statute to make mccain as u s born by any clean statute even as mccain had us parents parentent could not evade the then statute in 1936 but doctoring status of u s citizenship by birth a requirement to be u s president w e f jan 20, 2009. remove scandal prone mccain from candidacy of us president, even b h obama was not u s born to be called us native born ashis mother at 18 yrs age with union with akenyan nationalgave birth to a baby later viz obama. but 1961 us statute this way of parentage could not produduce u s child to be us prsident later. obama be removed from candidacy until these two human_gods in politics prove themselves as u s native born human_gods.14 15 16 17 18 19 20

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#10 - Sun Sep 14, 2008 8:39 PM EDT

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Kamal Karna Roy

Residence United States
Other names Rev Dr Joseph Geronimo, Jr.
Kamal K. K. Roy
Kamal Karna Roy (also known as Kamal K.K. Roy and Rev. Dr. Joseph Geronimo, Jr.) is a prolific pro se litigant who, since at least the early 1990s, has filed numerous lawsuits throughout the United States and its territories under the names Roy and Joseph Geronimo, Jr., as well as under the names of entities that he is affiliated with, including International Siva Consciousness & World Religions, Reforms International, Handicap Interests International, and Jungle Democracy.[1] Roy's lawsuits are often brought against multiple defendants, and feature long, unconventional complaints. Roy has filed lawsuits against God, U.S. Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, fast food restaurants, foreign leaders.[2], and Wikipedia [3] [4].

Roy's lawsuits have addressed, among many other things, actions taken by President George W. Bush, overcharging by telecommunication companies, the appointment of Chief Justice John Roberts to the Supreme Court, and "failure of democratic societies and God's role therein."[5] In 2006 Judge Michael W. McConnell of The United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit described a typical Roy complaint:

Roy, a/k/a Joseph Geronimo, Jr. filed a 115-page complaint, a 144-page amended complaint, and a 40-page second amended complaint against over sixty defendants, including among many others President Bush, God as U.S.-based divine benefactor, several government agencies, The New York Times, and Kentucky Fried Chicken. In addition to pages of rambling discourse, the complaint contains numerous illegible handwritten remarks.[6]

The Tenth Circuit went on to affirm the district court's dismissal of the complaint holding that no discernible claim was apparent from the complaint. Judge McConnell also humorously noted that the court "strongly suspect[ed] at least one defendant was not properly served."[7]

Most, if not all, of Roy's complaints have been dismissed. A 2006 United States District Court for the District of Delaware opinion, Jungle Democracy v. U.S., describes Roy as "no stranger to litigation" and provides a partial list of Roy lawsuits that have been dismissed since 1991.[8]

Despite Roy's lack of success in the courts, his lawsuits have been discussed in law school classrooms and in law related blogs.[9] [10]

In April 2007 Roy filed a civil rights action against, among others, CBS Broadcasting Inc., MSNBC, the United States Government, and controversial radio shock jock Don Imus.[11]

In October 2007, Roy filed a suit in the US District Court, Middle District of Florida, against "Wikipedia Encyclopedia, USA, All News Media, All
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#13 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 12:35 AM EST

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A Gamble for Obama
His invitation to Rick Warren is a risk worth taking.
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Home /> Politics & Government /> Other - Politics & Government > Your Open Question Alfred J:ethics_reevaluations_us Member since: December 21, 2008 Total points: 67 (Level 1) Your Open QuestionShow me another » WHEN WEAK PERSON,US BREAKs LAW in US PERSON GOES IN CUSTODy&tRIAL,JAIL; POLITICO_MAGICIAN GET FREEwhy in USA?
12.22. 2008 washington dc:

I read that our President-elect's birth certificate has been authenticated. In fact, Leo Donofrio's lawsuit did not call the birth certificate into question, but rather, Donofrio cited Obama's father's citizenship as his reason for allegations against Obama's qulifications to serve as president.

Thanks for your comments.

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12.18.2008: new york : press release and comments on the related issues in the columns;
the rev dr kamal karna k roy, as yet a u s presidential hopeful & a legal contender for u s president w e f 1. 20. 2009 as several dozens of complints of electoral violations were allege in all legal juroisdictions of usa wherin election s were held for aboe noted elections as on nov 4, 2008 and which were followed
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#14 - Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:57 PM EST

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Oil vs. the Environment: What is the Tradeoff?	prospect.org	Tue Jun 24	4
Offshore drilling won't dent gas prices	InjunTrouble	Sat Jun 21	0
Truth-O-Meter: McCain's full of it (not truth)	Political Fact	Sun Jun 22	5
Cheap vs Obsolete: Is the 'Oil Drilling Debate' Masking the Real Issue?	dailygalaxy.com	Sun Jun 22	1
America's untapped oil	CNN	Mon Jun 23	9

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