After a tense weekend that raised further doubt about the strength of the U.S. mortgage market, the stock market drew some reassurance from news that the Treasury and Federal Reserve stood ready to come to the rescue of mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
But, despite a relatively mild Monday selloff, there was no question that a bear market is well underway, the latest sign that the economy is probably in recession. If history is any guide, both the economy and the stock market have a way to go before they hit bottom.
Stock prices have been near bear-market levels for weeks but officially landed there last week when the broad Standard and Poor's 500 index fell to more than 20 percent below its October peak level. The more narrow Dow Jones industrial average already had fallen more than 20 percent from its latest peak, the standard definition of a bear market.
Bear markets and recessions often go together. When companies see bad weather ahead and mark down their profit forecasts, investors take cover and sell stocks.
But the relationship is not perfect. The market has seen big pullbacks before without the economy tipping into recession; the Crash of 1987 is one of the best recent examples. Conversely, in the back-to-back recessions of 1980-82, one of the worst downturns of the past 50 years, the S&P 500 index was actually higher at the end of the event than when it began.
Over the past hundred years, the average bear market has lasted a little over a year and seen stock prices fall by about 30 percent. By that measure alone, investors can expect stock prices to continue to continue falling.
Corporate profits, meanwhile, are coming under pressure. And because stock prices generally are heavily influenced by corporate earnings, the bear market isn’t likely to end before those profits begin to recover.
That’s why, over the next few weeks, investors will be looking carefully at not only at what companies report they earned in the second quarter, but the guidance they give for the next few quarters. Those forecasts have been getting progressively worse so far this year.
“When we started the year, we thought we would see about a 4 percent increase in earnings for the S&P 500 in the second quarter,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard and Poor's Equity Research. “Now based on new guidance, additional writedowns and so forth we're looking for closer to a 10 percent decline.”
A lot, of course, depends on how well or poorly the economy performs. Though the latest data show the GDP has turned in small gains in growth, a series of six months of job losses and a five-month decline in industrial production point to an economy that is shrinking.
Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg is among those who believe that a recession is already under way.
Although the nation's gross domestic product rose 1 percent in the first quarter, according to the government, Rosenberg said in a recent report that he expects that figure to “undergo massive revisions.” When the final numbers are tallied, the results could show the economy began shrinking late last year. Such revisions marked the beginnings of both the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions, said Rosenberg.
Even as economic growth appears to have stalled, higher prices for oil, food and other commodities are fueling higher inflation both in the United States and around the world. That’s forced the Federal Reserve to halt a series of interest rate cuts deigned to keep the economy moving. Central bankers in Europe and elsewhere already have begun raising rates in an effort to curb inflation.
“Stagflation is the word — certainly here in the United States — and it's more or less breaking out all over the world,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics, referring to the dreaded combination of stagnation and inflation.
“And it's putting central banks in a real bind," he said. "For (economic) growth they need to cut rates, but they can’t possible do that. At the end of the day, central banks have to raise rates to fight inflation.”
Fed officials will get another reading on prices this week, with back-to-back reports on the latest monthly data on wholesale and consumer inflation. That news could place the Fed further in a bind; a reading showing rising inflation would increase the need to raise interest rates to try to tamp down price increases.
But raising rates could worsen the ongoing global credit crisis — including the fragile condition of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On the other hand, lowering rates to calm the credit markets risks stoking inflation.
As the latest round of corporate earnings reports are released in the next few weeks, investors are bracing for more bad news as financial giants like Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc. are again expected to write off billions of dollars of assets. Since last year, banks have written down nearly $300 billion.
“We have to consolidate, recapitalize and resize the entire financial system,” said Sinai. “It is broken, it is cracked. It will take a long time to fix it. You overlay that on what's going on in the economy, and the recession that we are already in and have been in, and the equity bear market is just going to last with occasional interruptions.”
As they work to rebuild damaged assets, banks are also coping with a big drop in profits. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 last year generated $61 billion of earnings; this year, the number is fall below $25 billion, according to S&P.
With a sizable portion of their assets backed by home mortgages, the continuing decline in home prices will prolong the rebuilding process. And with banks under pressure, they’re lending less money to potential home buyers — which further delays the recovery in the housing market.
"You're going to have further price drop as the value of (banks’) collateral is impaired and the mortgages are held on the banks balance sheets will become worthless," said Kevin Caron a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus. "So it's a self-propagating negative cycle that is going to be difficult to break, but eventually it will come to an end."
Earlier this year, the hope was that aggressive rate cutting by the Fed, coupled with $107 billion in tax rebate checks, would help the economy dodge a recession. The stimulus plan seemed to have the desired effect. Last week retailers reported better-than-expected gains in sales for June.
But the final checks have been mailed and will soon be spent. Then higher prices and rising unemployment are likely to crimp consumer spending, which accounts for some 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
“Discretionary spending of all kinds — restaurants, movies etc. — are going to get scaled way back in the next six months to a year,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. “And that will have a dramatic effect on consumer spending and the overall economy.”
John McCain opined that "the economic fundamentals are strong in the U.S."
Which economy is this guy talking about??????????????????????????
The GOP has officially ruined everything they have touched in the last 8 years. The last thing they deserve is another term. Failure shouldn't be rewarded. Obama and a whole new approach to governing is obviously needed. At least with Obama we can rest assured that he will handle our economic affairs more responsibly. John McCain is through.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
i have know for over 3 years this was coming - you would have to have been living in a cave not to realize where the economy was headed - i live in dallas and there was a large mortgage broker offering a $350,000.00 mortgage for $500.00 due at closing with little documentation - needless to say the hour long Reliance Mortgage radio show is no longer on KRLD - about 2 years before that which would be 4 or more years ago i sold a Porsche to a TWA Captain and at the same time he was buying a new 1200 square foot home on a postage stamp desert lot in a bedroom community of Las Vegas and the price was only $250,000 "GRIN" - he thought it was a great investment i wonder what he thinks now - i would not have paid 1/2 that - glad my home is paid for just hope i can afford the taxes and insurance )))))
This is not the end, there are by far more forclosures coming and more job losses on the way as more companies trim out the fat in the business. There has been a huge increasse in many areas, just look at the big box boom (Walmart, Home Depot ect), and even the little box boom (Starbucks, Outlet centers). Many of these companies have over built and have not realized it. They have catered to locations of the many rather than the strtigic locations of the past. Since 9/11 people have been on the react now mentallity as far as Stocks, gas pricing goes rather than the before 9/11 mentality of wait and see. This will be the most challenging time for America. No matter who wins the election they will be looked at as a failure. No one can pull America out of this slump in four years, mybe eight. I do think the life will be worse with McCain then Obama but neither will get the job done to perfection. Americans will still be scared since they are loosing jobs and have nothing better to do than watch TV and see more of America fall apart since jobs will be harder to come by. Look back to the .com bust, this is bigger and will involve more than just that smaller sector of workers.
People voting Republican this November are nothing but low functioning drones stuck on stupid. The Republican party is just plain weird! Nut balls passing themselves off as one of us. Incompetent, cynical, ordinary people loathing, don't get in the way of my ambition, blood sucking parasites. Why would I have this attitude after 8 years of things that are bad just got worse? Because more than anything else I love this country and I love the people who call themselves US citizens and it hurts to see what we hold dear being trampled and ruined by these political thugs who have bullied their way into power.
I got a phone call yesterday from the Ohio Republican Party. I live in Arizona. They were calling to remind me that there is only one party that protects the sanctity of life... blah blah blah... no partial birth abortions... blah blah blah
Okay. So WHERE in the sanctity of life does war fall?
And where does creating an economy that only benefits the few, not the many fall in protecting and preserving the sanctity of life? Is life ONLY holy now BEFORE birth?
How about the abysmal education system we have now? There have been lots of babies born during this administration that are in school now... apparently the sanctity of their education is not as important as making sure they were born in the first place.
If you ask me, it's all a giant SCAM. Don't educate the kids. Let them grow up dumb and while we're at it, let's make sure that we're the pseudo-religious party and throw money and favors at their church leaders. Then not only will they grow up to be dumb, they'll grow up to be dumb SHEEP and we'll be able to call them on the phone and use the words "partial birth abortion" to get them to vote for us... and we'll get RICH because they are too stupid to know that none of our actual policies will benefit them in ANY way.
Uneducated people and people whose education is limited to religious doctrine will destroy America. Last week the smartest of my peers said to me, "I'm scared of Obama. You know his middle name is Hussein, right?"
"We the People" are in trouble.
Yes Mam. I went home to Mississippi for our family reunion, mid July. Bubba talk all over town! One aunt, retired from the insurance business, said she had planned to vote for a black for the first time in her life. Now she's unsure because he didn't pick Hilary! Another Aunt, retired from banking laughed gleefully as she told me that every time she sees an O'Bama sign in her neighborhood, she takes a walk after dark & pulls it up. It's not just the uneducated. Polls are polls, but the ingrained prejudice in America is deeply rooted.
Did you hear the comment at the Republican convention stating that 35 Republican governors had introduced faith- based initiatives? We are indeed in trouble.
By the way I borrowed the "low functioning stuck on stupid" from another News Vine commentor. I can't remember who it was but thank you. Pure genius!
soupMom, you have hit the nail on the head. The so called Right To Life crowd has sunk into confusion for so long they are starting to believe their delusions are true.
It's just a lie by the media. John McCain said the other day the economy fundamentals are strong and he MUST be right, he's a Republican, like Bush.
You forgot to mention that he is a former POW!
My 2 cents, now worth nothing, at the next debate some one should throw a lit fire cracker in the air and watch what McStoopid does. We are all in deep doo doo.
Buy precious metals, because that will be the new currency.
So, this is how it feels to live in a third world country.
We got sold by our government, whom should we all thank???
I was watching MSNBC and the CEO of Lehman Brothers couldn't even answer questions posed to him. How in the world did he become a CEO???, I forgot he bought his way in. Golden parachute on his way out..nice...NOT.
This is just sick, greed driven shaft we are all getting. Thank you to the shrub and weeds.
I'd like to know why all the investment bank CEO's and CFO's, Fannie and Freddie CEO's and CFO's, and the AIG CEO and CFO have not ALL been arrested and are awaiting heavy PRISON sentences? They have colluded in grand theft economy, and although we are in deep doo-doo and all going to suffer, they are still buying and living in million dollar apartments and getting tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars as a "golden parachute" or "ya did your best" awards as they exit the buildings and take off in limos while thousands of ordinary workers are shocked numb as they are kicked in the fanny and into the street.
They have perpetrated a fraud on the American people and major embezzlement of funds. Whatever else happens now, ALL those guys (or ladies, as the case may be) need to be wearing orange jumpsuits and living in 8x8 cells.
If we bail the corporations out with taxpayer money, shouldn't all those big severance packages be returned to us for an off-set to our loss? I, being kind-hearted, would let them keep 10%.
When the US is socializing losses and privatizing profits by nationalizing failing private enterprises such as AIG, how can the Republicans promulgate their free market message with a straight face?!? The US taxpayer is being robbed blind!
We don't have money for decaying infrastructure, healthcare, education, but we have the money for corporate welfare and misguided wars? Who is going to bail me out? I have two sons about to graduate from high school, where am I going to get the money for their college education? Don't even suggest they get jobs, because they have not been able to find any! Our meager family investments are nearly wiped out... God, I hope we don't lose our jobs or we are done for. It is truly a shame that this great country of ours is well on its way to becoming a third world country.
Welcome to the Grand Old Republican Economy. Our baffled and broken Lame Chimp will slither off to Texas in a few months leaving America with a mountain of debt, a war paid by credit card, a badly damaged environment and an economy going up in smoke.
It's hard to fathom who would even consider of voting for a continuation of the Bush form of governing. Well, there's no accounting for taste or intellect.
Bob Barker has it right; OBAMA/BIDEN '08
Hey, but we sure did give them Eye-raqees a taste of Libertee, didn't we? Yee haw!!
Well, here we are, a war in two countries and our economy is in ruin. Who do we have to blame? All of us!!! We voted them into office, right? How about the corporate leaders who made bad decisions in the financial markets? What do they care? They get to keep all the money made with no repercussions. And there is the government who let them do it all with little or no oversight.
Then there is the old tied and true villains, Greed and Power.
We let them get away with it all. Why should a company that makes 47 Billion a quarter pay its lower workers $8/hr while the heads make millions? If you want to stimulate the economy put the money into the largest spending group, the middle class and below. Oh yeah, I forgot, the middle class is disappearing.
On more to blame then I will shut up. We The People. Yes, us. Only 30% of Americans vote. So, who do we blame. ALL of us
The economy is tanking, banks are failing and America is in bankruptcy, so where the heck is the President? Isn't he suppose to appear and tell us what the country is facing?
If anyone thinks we aren't getting the same type of leadership by electing another Republican they are only fooling themselves.
Republicans are just digging their heels in for their own party and when do average Americans really count in their grand scheme of things. You can just listen to their own rhetoric, they won't even claim they belong in the same room with G.W. Bush.
How can this race even be close...I am amazed!
I should have moved to Costa Rica when I retired instead of Hawaii. Although I love Hawaii it is still part of the US and run by Washington. It is as far as I can get from the idiots in Washington and still be in the US.
She sits along, waiting for suggestions (what's the Bush Doctrine??)
He's so nervous, avoiding all the questions
His lips are dry, her fist is gently pounding,
don't you just know exactly what they're thinking?
If you think I'm stupid and I want your money
Come on voters let me know.
If you like my lipstick and you think I'm right-wing,
Come on voters tell me so.
He's acting dumb, looking for a scapegoat,
Come on moosehead, let's spend the fall together.
Now hold on a minute, before we go much further,
Give me a dime, so I can phone my lender.
They catch a plane to his high-rent department,
At last he can tell her exactly what his thugs meant.
If you think I'm stupid and I want your oil wells
come on voters let me know.
If you like my lipstick and you think I'm right-wing,
Come on voters tell me so.
His heart beating like a drum (Heart attack?)
cos' at last he's got his Barbie home.
Relax baby now we are alone.
They wake at dawn 'cos all the jailbirds are singing,
two total strangers but that ain't what they're thinking.
Outside it's cold, misty and it's raining (It's November)
They got each other, and neither one's complaining (NOT!)
He says I'm sorry but I'm out of ideas and lies,
Never mind moosehead we can watch the early exit polls.
If you think I'm stupid and I want your money,
Come on voters let me know.
If you don't believe me, just read my lips again babe,
Come on voters tell me so.
Where does the Secretary of the treasury and the head of the federal Reserve get the authority to commit some much taxpayer moey whitout an act of Congress and an OK by the President?
Does anyone really want to know WHO caused the financial mess we are in ? Just search GOOGLE for the name "Franklin Raines". Even you Democrats will get an education.
Franklin Raines is a cog in a much larger wheel- Fannie Mae as a stand-alone entity did not cause this mess- a complete series of mishaps starting 8 years ago did- how do you explain going from a budget surplus of $360B+ to a estimated deficit of of $1.7T and all the other bad management decisions? Though Franklin is indeed one of the idiots he did not have control of the governments economic policy. Another President said the 'buck stops here"- are you saying it's always someone else's fault??
Then, I checked Wiki for Bechtel, Haliburton, Blackwater, Schlumberger, Kellogg-Brown&Root, and got a Republican education. Now I know how to get no-bid contracts to rebuild infrastructure in countries the U.S. bombed to smithereens. So a Democrat caused America's financial woes, but he didn't declare war on anybody to pony-up business for his cronies & then lie about it.
Bottomline is everything happend in the world as of right now that make everyone scare. From the Irag war, to global economy. American people, open your eyes and THINK! We need a new direction for this country! I think the American people deserve it because they elected Bush Second times, landslide!!!!! Thats what you get for bringing Bush in the office second time around!!!
To all the Republicans and Democrats blaming each other: Congress oversees federal agencies and the regulation of the banking and investment industries. They are supposed to oversee the Fed and the quasi-governmental agencies as well. In the last eight years, there have been Republicans in charge of Congress and Democrats in charge at other times -like now. So, it is far too simplistic to blame our financial meltdown on one party or another. As far as the costs of the wars, yes, the Republicans started it, but no Democrats have stopped it or cut off funding and no one of either party is likely to very soon. America has been through an unrelenting series of small booms and fairly significant busts since the early 1970's with several fairly severe regional recessions and supply shocks. Besides the ridiculous systematic, step by step removal of Depression era protocols for making sure financial markets remain strong and transparent and honest have been removed not just over the past 8 years, but over the past few decades. This meltdown didn't come through the irresponsibility or intentional malice of one party or another; it came as a consequence of greedy corporatists of ANY and ALL political affiliations who spend their time and considerable fortunes lobbying Congress to turn the other way while they continue their mischief - as well as greedy ordinary Americans who decided to push the envelope of fiscal responsibility beyond what was logical and ethical and responsible. Rome didn't fall in one day, one decade, or in one century, and America hasn't either. In other words, everybody in America got the "hoity-toyties" and decided they needed MORE and MORE and MORE of everything. Insatiable demand brings pretty severe unintended consequences. But the unintended consequences should have been very obvious, especially since it has all happened somewhere at sometime before. Now we are all wringing our hands and kissing the good life goodbye and wondering where we're going to wake up tomorrow -or even if there is going to BE a tomorrow. We've all had a hand in it, from the CEO's who think millions of dollars of salary and stock options are necessary to the lower paid American worker who somehow believed they could make $20 K per year and afford a $500 K house with two brand new cars; we all allowed it to happen. The horrible and ironic truth is that most people would probably do it all again -if they ever have the chance again. That's the nature of the beast we call "man".
A good argument and presentation of the past- would be interested if you have the same conscise reasoning on an approach to change the foilabls of man and find an improved path for the future?
Nope -some things just are the way they are -sadly. Change is a very individual thing.
Obama will be left with the same kind of mess Jimmy Carter inherited from the Nixon/Ford administration. Like Carter, he'll be remembered for the bitter pills he had to feed us to fix the mess.
Circles
Good Lord.....
Pulls a wad of bill out of his billfold...
Will this be worth anything in the future?
We need help people, help we can trust!!!!!
This is precisely what happens when the government 'bails-out' private institutions- all the dominoes start to fall. I have not seen one word about the AIG, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac management teams being held accountable or having to pay back the millions they made for their companies losing billions, so it will happen again in the future. Wasn't it Albert Einstein who said 'insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results'? This administration is not only incompetent it's insane.
Several weeks ago someone mentioned a tax-payer revolt, but that would hurt the new administration more than the current one. It is indeed time to act by trying to recall the politicians that contributed to this mess that are not up for reelection, making Congress change the appointed bureaucrats, and not voting for anyone connected with the current administration up for reelection.
Even with a new, focused Democratic President, having a Congress that is deadlocked gets us absolutely nowhere- except deeper into the insane asylum.
Then i better start learning Chinese or that Arab lango then.....
Because that next bail-out won't be from our country.....
No- I tried learning Chinese, it's way too difficult. I would rather try and 'rock the boat' here and make the incompetent and greedy leave for jail. Would be ironic if the $9.7T+ we borrowed from the Chinese for oil was partially used to bail-out multi-billion dollar private companies that don't have to pay it back- thought double-jeopardy was illegal?
Steve?
How deep is this hole we are in? Really....
Afri-mad... the hole is very deep. We are facing a situation where we will be required to re-learn what we are as a people. We value the most corrupt ideals any people could. The idea that one man could enslave another is the most anti-Christian thing a man could do. We did that in the name of Capitalism. Now we do it by firing Union supporters, allowing monopolys, encouraging Wal -Mart as something near acceptable, etc... we value the quick buck earned by the most devious, selfish beings we have as a nation. We watch while the execs at all these firms and government positions take home obscene MASTER RACE wages because they are arrogant enough to believe they are superior.
We Will need to shed our false consciousness about the nature of what America is and fight anyway possible to get what John Adams and George Washington gave us earlier... FREEDOM. You don't have it now and you will never know it until these Capitalist enslavers of humanity, for their own benefit, perish by the people. Power to the people.
*applause*
Damn good words sociologist....
damn good.....
Thats right "The Rock" InBev did indeed buy Anheuser-Busch, and guess who is (and has been for decades) a major "sponsor" of our presidential "debates". (and I use the term loosely) Bud!
Our major (legal) drug supplier is now in foreign hands.
While digesting Reader's Digest, in the back of the dirty-book store,
A plastic flag with gum on the back, fell out on the floor.
I picked it up and I ran outside, slapped it on my windowshield.
And if I could see old Betsy Ross, I'd tell her how good I feel.
But your flag decal won't get you, into heaven anymore.
They're already overcrowded, from your dirty little wars.
Now Jesus don't like killin', no matter what the reason for.
And your flag decal won't get you, into heaven anymore...
John Prine, Contemporary Folk artist.
Obama repeatedly blamed the Bush administration for creating the financial mess, even though Democratic President Clinton signed the 1999 financial modernization law that tore down long-standing walls between commercial banks, securities firms and insurance companies, and Democrats have controlled Congress since January 2007 . (YAHOO NEWS 9/16/2008)
Please read GOOGLE BIO on Franklin Raines. He is on Obama's advisory board !
Republicans all have thier heads up thier collective asses
I'm a baby boomer born to parents who survived the Great Depression. Years ago I asked my mom what was the difference between Republicans and Democrats. She told me that Republicans care for and about the rich while the Democrats try to make life better for the poor and the working people. If you are not rich then it's simple. Democrats good, Republicans bad. We can but assume, roneco, that you are rich and trying to protect you own behind, because if you are not rich you are either a bigot or not terribly bright. One thing we do know for sure, Mama was right!
You poor poor fool! If you think one crooked political party is better than the other keep living your lie. The truth is both political parties are in bed with the corporations and wall street! You have been around long enough to know that it doesn't matter what political party is in office they are business as usual in Washington DC! Our only way out is to vote our whomever is in office regardless of political party! This is not a Political issue because neither party will help - They're all Crooks!
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