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After a tense weekend that raised further doubt about the strength of the U.S. mortgage market, the stock market drew some reassurance from news that the Treasury and Federal Reserve stood ready to come to the rescue of mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
But, despite a relatively mild Monday selloff, there was no question that a bear market is well underway, the latest sign that the economy is probably in recession. If history is any guide, both the economy and the stock market have a way to go before they hit bottom.
Stock prices have been near bear-market levels for weeks but officially landed there last week when the broad Standard and Poor's 500 index fell to more than 20 percent below its October peak level. The more narrow Dow Jones industrial average already had fallen more than 20 percent from its latest peak, the standard definition of a bear market.
Bear markets and recessions often go together. When companies see bad weather ahead and mark down their profit forecasts, investors take cover and sell stocks.
But the relationship is not perfect. The market has seen big pullbacks before without the economy tipping into recession; the Crash of 1987 is one of the best recent examples. Conversely, in the back-to-back recessions of 1980-82, one of the worst downturns of the past 50 years, the S&P 500 index was actually higher at the end of the event than when it began.
Over the past hundred years, the average bear market has lasted a little over a year and seen stock prices fall by about 30 percent. By that measure alone, investors can expect stock prices to continue to continue falling.
Corporate profits, meanwhile, are coming under pressure. And because stock prices generally are heavily influenced by corporate earnings, the bear market isn’t likely to end before those profits begin to recover.
That’s why, over the next few weeks, investors will be looking carefully at not only at what companies report they earned in the second quarter, but the guidance they give for the next few quarters. Those forecasts have been getting progressively worse so far this year.
“When we started the year, we thought we would see about a 4 percent increase in earnings for the S&P 500 in the second quarter,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard and Poor's Equity Research. “Now based on new guidance, additional writedowns and so forth we're looking for closer to a 10 percent decline.”
A lot, of course, depends on how well or poorly the economy performs. Though the latest data show the GDP has turned in small gains in growth, a series of six months of job losses and a five-month decline in industrial production point to an economy that is shrinking.
Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg is among those who believe that a recession is already under way.
Although the nation's gross domestic product rose 1 percent in the first quarter, according to the government, Rosenberg said in a recent report that he expects that figure to “undergo massive revisions.” When the final numbers are tallied, the results could show the economy began shrinking late last year. Such revisions marked the beginnings of both the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions, said Rosenberg.
Even as economic growth appears to have stalled, higher prices for oil, food and other commodities are fueling higher inflation both in the United States and around the world. That’s forced the Federal Reserve to halt a series of interest rate cuts deigned to keep the economy moving. Central bankers in Europe and elsewhere already have begun raising rates in an effort to curb inflation.
“Stagflation is the word — certainly here in the United States — and it's more or less breaking out all over the world,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics, referring to the dreaded combination of stagnation and inflation.
“And it's putting central banks in a real bind," he said. "For (economic) growth they need to cut rates, but they can’t possible do that. At the end of the day, central banks have to raise rates to fight inflation.”
Fed officials will get another reading on prices this week, with back-to-back reports on the latest monthly data on wholesale and consumer inflation. That news could place the Fed further in a bind; a reading showing rising inflation would increase the need to raise interest rates to try to tamp down price increases.
But raising rates could worsen the ongoing global credit crisis — including the fragile condition of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On the other hand, lowering rates to calm the credit markets risks stoking inflation.
As the latest round of corporate earnings reports are released in the next few weeks, investors are bracing for more bad news as financial giants like Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc. are again expected to write off billions of dollars of assets. Since last year, banks have written down nearly $300 billion.
“We have to consolidate, recapitalize and resize the entire financial system,” said Sinai. “It is broken, it is cracked. It will take a long time to fix it. You overlay that on what's going on in the economy, and the recession that we are already in and have been in, and the equity bear market is just going to last with occasional interruptions.”
As they work to rebuild damaged assets, banks are also coping with a big drop in profits. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 last year generated $61 billion of earnings; this year, the number is fall below $25 billion, according to S&P.
With a sizable portion of their assets backed by home mortgages, the continuing decline in home prices will prolong the rebuilding process. And with banks under pressure, they’re lending less money to potential home buyers — which further delays the recovery in the housing market.
"You're going to have further price drop as the value of (banks’) collateral is impaired and the mortgages are held on the banks balance sheets will become worthless," said Kevin Caron a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus. "So it's a self-propagating negative cycle that is going to be difficult to break, but eventually it will come to an end."
Earlier this year, the hope was that aggressive rate cutting by the Fed, coupled with $107 billion in tax rebate checks, would help the economy dodge a recession. The stimulus plan seemed to have the desired effect. Last week retailers reported better-than-expected gains in sales for June.
But the final checks have been mailed and will soon be spent. Then higher prices and rising unemployment are likely to crimp consumer spending, which accounts for some 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.
“Discretionary spending of all kinds — restaurants, movies etc. — are going to get scaled way back in the next six months to a year,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight. “And that will have a dramatic effect on consumer spending and the overall economy.”
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{"commentId":3265931,"authorDomain":"Earthman1"}
Stash your cash. Get out of the manipulated markets. The storm grows worse. The criminals want to use your money until there's none left. Save yourselves!!!!!!!!!!!
{"commentId":3265931,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"Earthman1"}
#76 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 4:56 PM EDT{"commentId":3289636,"authorDomain":"sburbnman"}
Do any of us realize that this $700B (or $1T) is simply the tip of the iceberg compared to the real crisis our elected bozo's have been putting off and never even bringing up because it's too massive and complex for anyone to manage or solve?
We caused all of this by simply allowing and accepting larger and larger budget and trade deficits at the individual (credit cards and loans), city (budget deficits), state (budget deficits) and national (budget and trade deficits) levels? Every one of these from individuals to our country, in total, owe literally trillions of dollars that we've already used up but still owe.
Where?
1. Budget Deficits and National Debt of $11 Trillion (T-R-I-L-L-I-O-N-S)
2. Trade Deficits and Balance of Payments with Other Countries (T-R-I-L-L-I-O-N-S)
3. Social Security/Medicare which is money paid into the system, mixed with our general fund, spent to hide the real budget deficit and national debt ($150T with "T"). This is now coming due as the Baby Boomers (like us) come to retire.
4. Non-Performing Loans to Other countries by our banks!!
5. Credit Card Debt and Student Loans that a large percent of the borrowers will NEVER be able to repay.
6. Approximately $5T, with T, in real estate loans that are non-performing or upside down.
The Real Estate Market was buoyed up artificially through very low interest rates and interest only loans for short periods. It made the Real Estate values rise by 100%+. The same rate at which it rose, now it has fallen. However, many of us have already borrowed against that equity and bought even more stuff or real estate. So we've got us holding the property and an obligation for a property whose value will continue to slide, and our "fundamentally strong" financials institutions and investment banks (according to the Bozo in the White House and Parrot running to replace Bozo).
Therefore, when all these vultures return to roost, as many have started to do, this economy is headed for a collapse of unimaginable proportions. Our elected officials who love to spend your money, as you can see now, have continued to defer solving or fixing the real problems to other in the future, and we, the biggest bozos, continue to elect such idiots to the White House and the Capitol Hill, pay them handsomely for their non-work, and sit arguing with each other about how good and bad they are.
The $1T already being proposed or spent ($806B current, $200B for Fannie and Freddie, and $85B for AIG) was borrowed. Do you know that now we will spend $35B...Billions...every year for ever on top of this amount for the interest on that $1T! Can you just imagine what we can do with $1T and $35B a year for ever!!
And, if we pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan and saved an addition $1T in future costs and $60B current costs ever year.
That would pay for all our healthcare, all the tuition for our kids colleges, and rebuild the bridges and roads, take off every homeless person off the streets, or pay off our National Debt in less than 10 years!!
Are we all real stupid and idiots or what!!
You know my answer....
{"commentId":3289636,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"sburbnman"}
#77 - Fri Oct 3, 2008 12:27 PM EDT{"commentId":3290282,"authorDomain":"sburbnman"}
Is there ANYONE out there who is absolutely sick and tired of our government?
Is there ANYONE out there who is wants real change?
Is there ANYONE out there who is willing to make a REAL commitment to bring about the necessary change?
Is there ANYONE out there who is willing to start, support and sustain an organization totally committed to bringing and end to this house of cards, and to return to a real economy committed to restoring America back to its foundations and roots, eliminating greed and stealing, bringing back an honest government, honest business, honest and unselfish people dedicated and committed to restoring the country to health, debt free and simplicity from the grass roots level, such as the MoveOn Organization?
If you are, I would like to be the first to commit myself to initiating this effort and building it one person, one family at a time.
I would like to ask those truly and sincerely interested in this effort to join me, to formulate a set of principals to abide by, and goals to strive for, for this organization. To enlist other likeminded people who's sole objective for joining would be to restore America on sound economic and social foundation.
If you are interested, I would like to hear from you. Send me an email at Sburbnman@gmail.com
If there is sufficient interest and support for such an organization, I will dedicate and commit myself to starting it, and building an organization which can continue to evolve it and grow it until it's objectives are met.
I FOR ONE, IS NOT ONLY SICK AND TIRED OF THE CROOKS AND/OR SELF SERVICING INCOMPETENTS RUNNING THIS COUNTRY, THAT I AM WILLING TO DO WHATEVER I CAN TO BRING ABOUT CHANGE, NOT FOR MYSELF BUT FOR MY CHILDREN, FOR EVERY AMERICAN WHO IS EQUALLY FED UP AND WISHES TO BRING ABOUT THE SAME CHANGE.
IF YOU ARE TRULY SICK AND TIRED OF THIS ALL, THIS IS YOUR CHANGE TO ACTUALLY DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT INSTEAD OF VENTING. TO MAKE A CHANGE INSTEAD OF COMPLAINING. TO COMMITTING TO HELPING YOUR CHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN, INSTEAD OF RAIDING THEIR FUTURES.
SBURBNMAN@GMAIL.COM
{"commentId":3290282,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"sburbnman"}
#78 - Fri Oct 3, 2008 12:47 PM EDT{"commentId":3333321,"authorDomain":"theverybadbob"}
Depression 08 - not even blind sided and everyone wants to pretend everything is ok.
Good luck folks... I have to can up some more tomatoes with basil... how much is your house worth today???
I have a pot of soup on in the kitchen so you are welcome to stop by anytime!!!!
{"commentId":3333321,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"theverybadbob"}
#79 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 7:49 AM EDT{"commentId":3334033,"authorDomain":"herfus-zoomus"}
Quadruple the Capital Gains taxes on profits from those that Short or profit from Naked Stock Option plays. Half the Tax Rate on those going Long or taking other Bullish actions. The US should lower the Fed Funds Rate by 1% today. Further procrastination is detrimental. Give the Small Entity Inventor a low cost path to innovate us out of this mess. I will repeat my challenge; given sufficient monetary backing, I can develop a Hummer Sized SUV that can travel 400+ miles before refueling and gets 100+ miles per gallon, within one year.
{"commentId":3334033,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"herfus-zoomus"}
#80 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 9:19 AM EDT{"commentId":3334099,"authorDomain":"cramsey"}
WE are the ones to blame as we sat on our rear ends thinking this was not going to happen. I believe in our system but we each have to be accountable for our actions in buying homes we could not afford and the greedy ones who made millions in commisions off our mistakes. You have to have some type of regulations just to keep systems in check. Most of us did the same when rearing our children.
Enough of the blame game we need a solution to this huge problem and I see no candidate trying to help us only trying to get themselves elected. Words are cheap, I need to see action.
{"commentId":3334099,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"cramsey"}
#81 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 9:27 AM EDT{"commentId":3334672,"authorDomain":"pj98gt"}
You mean politicians just wasted $700 billion dollars that will accomplish nothing except perhaps proping up over-inflated home prices for a short while longer? Gee who would have thought that? Oh yeah the overwhelming majority of Americans, but hey why should the Government listen to them?
{"commentId":3334672,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"pj98gt"}
#82 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 10:20 AM EDT{"commentId":3334779,"authorDomain":"pacificnwmom"}
So much for the $1.8+ trillion bailout using our hard-earned tax dollars for nothing! We have been grossly deceived and everyone deceiving us should be led away in handcuffs. This is an outrage.
{"commentId":3334779,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"pacificnwmom"}
#83 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 10:27 AM EDT{"commentId":3334821,"authorDomain":"marianita"}
Way to go, Congress, Bush...Everyone, PLEASE vote this November.
{"commentId":3334821,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"marianita"}
#84 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 10:30 AM EDT{"commentId":3336689,"authorDomain":"jtcriv"}
Please don't tell everyone in Utah to vote. I,live here, too, and you know as well as I do that most of them will vote Republican because years ago an LDS Church prophet said that you can't be a Democrat and be a good Mormon. Forget the fact that up until then there were many,many good Mormons who were also Democrats, including former church prophets. And remember the prophet who said that was Ezra Taft Benson , a man who made the Borgia popes look like the ACLU. But the sheep that live here now believed him and then inflicted a bunch of Mitt Romneys (talk about greed personified) on the world. So don't tell them to vote. Do you really think this country can survive a Palin administration?
{"commentId":3336689,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"jtcriv"}
{"commentId":3334903,"authorDomain":"pacificnwmom"}
This is what pure greed and selfishness looks like...pretty ugly isn't it? We need to restore honesty, integrity, ethics and responsibility to our financial system. Vote everyone out of office and closing down K Street are good first steps. Get the government back in the hands of We The People. No more lobbyists running the government!
{"commentId":3334903,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"pacificnwmom"}
#85 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 10:36 AM EDT{"commentId":3334950,"authorDomain":"wambowabbitt"}
I KEEP READING OF ALL THE THINGS PEOPLE SHOULD DO WITH THEIR "CASH", NO MATTER WHICH COUNTRY IT IS PRINTED IN, BUT ONE THING FOR SURE, IF YOU HAVE ANY CASH, SOME ROOM ON YOUR CREDIT CARDS YOU SHOULD ORDER A STOCK OF LONG STORAGE FOOD FOR YOUR BASEMENT SO YOUR FAMILY MAY EAT! THE LAST DEPRESSION THERE WERE FARMS AND GARDENS THAT SAVED MANY FROM STARVATION, NOT THIS TIME! SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOLKS!
{"commentId":3334950,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"wambowabbitt"}
#86 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 10:40 AM EDT{"commentId":3335647,"authorDomain":"jeffro420"}
End the Federal Reserve and try all the members of congress and senate that voted for this bill for TREASON...your Government has declared war on civilians...prepare for martial law, prepare for food shortages, prepare to shield yourself from our own spy satellites because Bush signed a bill last week to turn those satellites on the American People. We have been betrayed. Learn where the Fema concentration camps are in your area...they are coming for you. Good luck and God bless.
{"commentId":3335647,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"jeffro420"}
#87 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 11:31 AM EDT{"commentId":3335868,"authorDomain":"exccraider"}
Well, what did the "world's economic experts" think would happen when crude oil prices increased six-fold ($25 a barrel to $150) in a six year period? They have no one to blame but themselves for their unchecked greed!
Stupid people shouldn't breed!
{"commentId":3335868,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"exccraider"}
#88 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 11:45 AM EDT{"commentId":3336878,"authorDomain":"prltd"}
The political naiveté of many posters is amazing: the inane babble about ‘The Good Ole Days’ when exactly were they, fretting about Honesty, Values, and Trust and all other ‘Hot Button’ words is useless.
Politics is the mechanism that has evolved to allow the guilty to blame others for their actions and faulty decisions.
The consumption of foreign oil has rocketed out of control because most people have cared more about what other people might think than the long effects and punished politicians who had the temerity to bring up the subject in polite company.
We have heard the signal phrasing for the last 3 decades, ‘I want what I want ‘and ‘I want it now’ and ‘I want it cheap or free’. This attitude drove the outsourcing of jobs, a huge run-up in consumer debt, the reckless use of home equity for the baubles, bangles and SUV’S , bill has come due and many people chime in with,’ How did this happen, I don’t understand.
The Investment Banks and Wall Street did pretty much the same thing as Main Street.
Well now the party is over, and the hangover is going to be long and very painful as well as fatal in some cases.
WE THE PEOPLE, made this mess and we all have to get together and fix this.
{on small idea, park those SUV’s and turn them into planters}
{"commentId":3336878,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"prltd"}
#89 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 12:37 PM EDT{"commentId":3340310,"authorDomain":"rrem"}
NO, you haven't heard I want, I want, I want, that is, unless you''ve been saying it yourself. What you have heard is buy, buy, buy! What you have heard is a government spending, spending, spending and a military spending who answers to no one. And a president telling us repeatedly, everything's alright, keep the economy up by doing your patriotic duty SPEND...
What we have now is a puppet government who answers to the World Bank and I for one am not going to let that happen.
What you see are allot of dofferent Euro-states, who remembered they used to be nations telling us, they aren't going to go for the new world order and will back up and make their own money, thank you.
{"commentId":3340310,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"rrem"}
{"commentId":3339564,"authorDomain":"pj98gt"}
Here's where your $700 billion baillout went. Paulson wanted it for his friends.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has appointed Neel Kashkari to oversee the Troubled Assets Relief Program and the newly created Office of Financial Stability. Kashkari, like Paulson, is a former executive from Goldman Sachs.
The Treasury released its guidelines for how it would hire firms to manage assets purchases.
It cited the need to begin the program urgently - purchasing and managing up to $700 billion in troubled assets to unclog the credit market. Asset managers and other private-sector agents involved in running it may be hired "through other than full and open competition," the Treasury said in a statement.
Read the story at cnn dot com.
How much do you want to bet that the new Asset Managers come from Goldman Sachs or from business partnersof Golman Sachs? Hey, at least these guys families won't have to worry about their future right? I guess the "financial rescue" did rescue those close to Paulson.
{"commentId":3339564,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"pj98gt"}
#90 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 2:37 PM EDT{"commentId":3340069,"authorDomain":"rrem"}
All it means to me is suffering. I was already down from a divorce. I knew this was going to happen, don't have to be a rocket scientist to ad 2 + 2. I used to have a career in telecommunications but that was before 2000. I was trying to get a two year degree before it hit so I'd be in a better position, what with a very short-sighted ex-husband already making it miserable for my son and me and a sick mom in and out of the hospital... now this. i was holding it together for everyone, i don't have anyone to help me hold it together...we'll be on the street. well, what can i say? that's life.
no question in my mind who's behind this or why. Welcome to World War III.
see some of you there.
{"commentId":3340069,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"rrem"}
#91 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 2:59 PM EDT{"commentId":3340147,"authorDomain":"rrem"}
Everyone look closely. Our government sold us out for the new world order. Don't kid yourself any longer about just how ruthless these people who run this government or the world are, they'd kill ya, as soon as look at ya for a profit. Don't forget it, thye want you to be indebted.
{"commentId":3340147,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"rrem"}
#92 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 3:02 PM EDT{"commentId":3340170,"authorDomain":"newvistaschool"}
Finally! Even the idiots on CNBC are using the Words Stock Market Crash! Welcome to the Great Depression of 2008 - Thanks Congress - We owe it all to you!
{"commentId":3340170,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"newvistaschool"}
#93 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 3:03 PM EDT{"commentId":3342055,"authorDomain":"golfmanj140"}
VOTE EVERYONE IN CONGRESS OUT!!!!!
{"commentId":3342055,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"golfmanj140"}
#94 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 4:19 PM EDT{"commentId":3346220,"authorDomain":"twcg"}
So who are you going to vote in? Nature abhors a vacuum. Even if there was an armed revolt to restore government, who would you put in? Yourself? We hold the power in our own productivity which has been exported for a very long time. Instead of consumers, we need to take the long road back to being producers. We can exchange with each other. You don't need to ask permission to coin your own fiat money (legal tender) regionally as Idaho has done. And you won't pay sales tax.
{"commentId":3346220,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"twcg"}
#95 - Mon Oct 6, 2008 7:16 PM EDT{"commentId":3356410,"authorDomain":"rudi-1"}
Bush lies, so why are Pelosi, Obama, and McCain going along with the bailout plan. You notice the stocks are now below 10,000. We need an independent party in power or at least enough independents for a true check and balance system. The FDIC has raised the limit to 250K, how many of Main Street affect that?
{"commentId":3356410,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"rudi-1"}
#96 - Tue Oct 7, 2008 1:25 PM EDT{"commentId":3416468,"authorDomain":"tabenson-1984"}
I'm just your ordinary citizen, going to an average job everyday. I don't want handouts. I work for what I have. (It ain't MUCH). I have a suggestion. Why doesn't the Government bails us out? We are the voice of this country. We are the ones that make America strong. We have different beliefs, except one, we all believe in our country. I suggest that we get some of that cash for our own homes. We could stimulate the economy. Give us enough to pay off the mortgage companies, pay off the cars. Then watch us go shopping. The smart American would pay off the debts. Two hundred thousand per house hold would be just about right. But, the stipulation would be to own a home or trying to. It's not all gloom and doom. The Government could tax the money, and it would still be enough left over to pay off our debts. I get tired of people whining about their Mercedes and I know some people that are very happy with a used Chevrolet or Ford. Some wages are ridiculously high, then the fixed incomes have to choose between eating or heating. Come on guys, if you have a roof over your head and a hot meal on your tables what are you complaining about. When was the last time anyone was truely worried about the little people in this country? They are too concerned about lining their own pockets. Some people are dealt a bad hand in life, they may need some help every now and then. Hey Government, got a dime to spare??
{"commentId":3416468,"threadId":"312773","contentId":"1664179","authorDomain":"tabenson-1984"}
#97 - Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:55 AM EDT{"canLink":false,"threadId":"312773","isPrivate":false}
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