UN: Georgians effectively blocked from homes

This is Jiguli, famous russian brand - the best car!!!

What brand of automobile is that on the right?

It's Lada - those cars are outdated by a couple of decades, at least. Arguably, the worst cars in the world :)

I ran an office in Tbilisi for 5 years recently. While I do not think Putin is telling the entire truth when he accuses the West of creating this attack in an attempt to elect John McCain, I suspect he may be telling a partial truth.

The probability that the attack by Georgia right at the start of the Olympics, and that Russia would pull back at the end of the Olympics is an accident is not credible. The probability that Putin would just happen to be sitting near George Bush so that he could watch him during a casual occasion, one of the only such events in the past 8 years, is extremely low. Putin took a reading and pressed his advantage. He is getting a triple play out of this. So I am fairly sure that it was Kremlin agents who wound up Saakishvili to attack when he did. But the flatfooted US response strongly suggests to me that this was a surprise, or at least that it was unexpected at this time. Maybe this was a lone-wolf operation by McCain and Schuenemann, but I doubt it very much.

However, I would not be at all surprised if an "October surprise" had been planned. This sort of thing would be right up certain people's alley. With their ducks lined up better, I would expect that the Republicans could have done very well out of such an event. Since Georgia is crawling with Russian agents, and those agents and assets are quite professional, while Georgian agents and assets are far from it, it is to be expected that the Kremlin would get wind of it.

If the Kremlin got wind of such a plan, their response to it would be expected to be something like what happened. The best way to screw up an attack plan that you cannot stop is to provoke it to happen before its time at a time and place of your choosing.

But, there is a third possibility that I think is the most likely one. I think that Randy Schuenemann was laying the butter onto Saakishvili, leading the Georgian president to think that he was a much more important guy than he is. Saakishvili, feeling the intense pressure of the mass march in January, felt he had to do something. I suspect what is most likely is that what Randy said to Saakishvili got interpreted incorrectly, and that more importantly, a few hints got interpreted as the worst case scenario by the Kremlin.

Intelligence work is like that. Partial information is the norm, which is why in most cases it is better to tolerate a few identified spies in one's midst unless nations are actively at war. Because this will prevent crossed wires and misinterpretations. It can also be used as a backchannel to send messages.

So I suspect that the most likely scenario is that the Kremlin believed, on the basis of the evidence it had, that the Republicans were going to try to throw the election by creating a little war right before the November vote. And so the Kremlin decided to blow it off at the most convenient time for them. But probably, there wasn't such an event planned and it was all a mistake generated by a soft-soaping lobbyist who needed some income, and a tinpot president of a tiny nation who needed some help in order to stay in office.

Can we get more FUBAR in the Caucasus?

)))))))))))))))))))))

Not just neo-tsarist Russia. There's also the Saudis, the Chavistas, the kleptocrat-led West Africa and Central Asian regimes...

So yes. Energy independence is the best bet for everyone involved, in the long run. Now people need to get over their NIMBY-ism, and the nuclear industry need to fully disclose and fix faulty maintenance protocols, lest the public will never trust them to expand their business.

Mind you, if the US achieves Western European levels of fuel efficiency, you guys can cut off either Venezuela or Saudi Arabia immediately. Would involve increased population density in urban areas, but that makes provision of public services easier anyway.

One nation, one aggressor who violated the sovereignty of a free and democratic nation. This bully of a nation is the only nation in the ENTIRE world who recognizes your rebel provinces, and suddenly you think you are free? What a joke.

NATO and the west must continue to punish Russia. They must learn that their acts of aggression are inexcusable.

Georgia were the aggressors.

djd. Exactly. The Americans should be giving aid to the Russians. Oh yeah and pigs fly!

Georgia were the aggressors.

Right, going after violent rebels who attacked Georgians... that makes them the aggressor.

I will grant that Georgia's response may have been a poor one, but it certainly did not merit the overwhelming aggression of the Soviets Russians.

Why? The Russians were only protecting their citizens. As that 12 year old girl who got cut off from fox said. From the mouths of babes.

The Russians were only protecting their citizens

What were Russian citizens doing in Georgia?

They moved there from Asia in the middle ages. They have their own language and culture and prefer Russia to the Georgian puppet government. One might as easily ask what Albanian citizens were doing in Kosovo. Recognizing the Serbian province of Kosovo as an independent state is parallel with Russia's actions now.

You are not independent, that's what you think. You have fallen into the orbit of Russia, from were there is no escape. You will be there, like Poland, for 45 years ... lest the free world rescues you. You will be on the mercy of Russia for food and shelter. You call this "independence"? You are out of your mind!

So does that mean if there are enough people from Mexico in San Diego, they can declare their independence?

Americans doesn't destroy people from Mexico and San Diego, and they have their own country - MEXICO, Our country ABKHAZIA and we want to be independent, we've never been part of Georgia, it happened during Stalins regime, because Beria hated Abkhazians. After breakup of Soviet Union, all countries declared of their independence, so as Abkhazia, but Georgia didn't want to free us as we have the best land ever - the most beautiful Black Sea coast, we protested with strikes, meetings. In 1992 Georgia started operation witch called "Sward" - the aim is to destroy ALL Abkhazians and our historical documents - they burned our libraries, all archives, killed all families, but with the help of Russia and our president Vladislav Grigorievich Ardzinba, who didn't leave us, we gained our victory, and we existed as independent country, just unrecognized.
I've been there I survived this war - GEORGIANS NEED ABKHAZIAN LAND WITHOUT ABKHAZIANS.
ABOUt RUSSIA - YES ECONOMICALLY WE DEPEND ON RUSSIA, BUT AT LEAST THEY LET US TO LIVE. CHOOSING BEATWEEN GEORGIA AND RUSSIA WE CHOOSE RUSSIA!!!

Definitely. The US Navy also delivered aid to tsunami victims in Aceh, more than three years ago; without their presence, it is rather likely that the Indonesian military would have withheld aid to rebel-controlled areas. Instead, the disaster has now led to a peace agreement.

"Can NATO — which is not a state located in the Black Sea — continuously increase its group of forces and systems there? It turns out that it cannot," Nogovitsyn was quoted as saying Wednesday by the Interfax news agency.

Ridiculous assertion, considering Turkey borders on the Black Sea, and in fact Crimea used to be an Ottoman possession. The Crimean Tatars are ethnoculturally related to the Turks, after all.

Russia is just the first who recognised, there will be another))))

I won't hold my breath

We'll see... just let us live

America already tried the isolationist route, and it did not go so well. Yes, I agree that we need to resolve our issues here at home, but that can be accomplished while still being involved in the world.

I see no reason for us to be involve in any of this, it time we close our border and take care of our own people.

I believe that was the belief in the US prior to WW2 and led to Europe being overrun by the Germans.

If we withdrew and became isolationist, we'd also have to cut our military in half. I guess we could send all our soldiers to work in the fields at 1/4 their current salary?

We (The United States) has never been isolationist. Isolationism runs against the grain of American history.

That isn't to say that I support the current agenda of global meliorism, just stating that we have never and will never be isolationist.

Isolationism should be switched out for unilateral(ism).

I for one support Georgia

We (The United States) has never been isolationist. Isolationism runs against the grain of American history.

Crack open a US history book... you might learn something...

I guess we could send all our soldiers to work in the fields at 1/4 their current salary?

Just let China take over and then everyone could work on communal farms.

Little bit of a dig but I accept that and reply with, crack open a book besides those which were forced down your throat in public school.

International commerce is how this nation has survived and prospered since day one. With international commerce comes the need to defend and manipulate international problems and actions that may disrupt that trade. Re-read your history and think for yourself for just a moment (scary I know) and you will see that the U.S. has never been isolationist. Again, unilateral(ist) maybe but NEVER have we been isolationist.

I offer you a book that may offer some insight into where I am going with this.

Walter McDougall - Promised Land, Crusader State.

Enjoy

Ralph I agree. Makes me wonder what else they are bringing in besides 'aid'?

Of course it is political. America want to show that they will provide aid to their allies. Georgia isn't part of Russia and it doesn't want to be part of Russia.

this is russian internal affairs.

Sorry but the Russian invasion of an independent European nation, is not an internal affair.

Allies. Where was America when Georgia was being bombed? A true ally would jump right in and help. Not slither in after it's over with their 'aid' and whatever else they bought along with them.

A true ally would have had a treaty and would have consulted with its allies and they would have agree with any potentially dangerous actions before hand.

While the US and Georgia may be friends and allies, Georgia did not consult with the US before hand and verify that if Russia would invade, the US would respond in kind. Those kind of agreements are usually called treaties.

Nonsense. This was a Cold War mentality of the "spheres of influence." Now that the Cold War is over, the satellite nations are vowing to live free. Nothing can change that, except war. Russia must understand this!

I agree with Sedekka that the whole Georgia affair leaves too many questions unanswered. NATO is supposed to know where major military movements are taking place. If NATO didn't know that 1,000 tanks were on the way through the Roki tunnel, will NATO know when a Russian convoy attacks Alaska, or when missiles with atomic warheads are in flight to New York? This affair only reinforces my belief that something is very wrong with the post-Cold War world security arrangements!

Russia didn't bombed Tbilisi (capital of Georgia), Russia did not occupy Georgia.

Russia did bomb Tbilisi, and it continues to occupy sovereign Georgian territory.

From German Chancellor Angela Merkel:

"The continued Russian presence in Georgia outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, for example, in Poti, represents ... a significant violation of the six-point plan agreement."

---

Russia wants to be INDEPENDENT, that the only thing they want, is it hard to understand?

uh... how is Russia invading Georgia a fight for Russian independence? oh... thats right... its not.

US plans to surround Russia with military bases and even start the invasion when the time will be right. US wants to control the whole planet, and who is not with US - they against US.

Thats a joke right? The United States has no desire to invade Russia. It will never happen. Why don't we stick to facts instead of your sensationalist comments?

In the opinion of the Russian defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, Novaya Gazeta's member of staff, "Russia's invasion of Georgia had been planned in advance, with the final political decision to complete the preparations and start war in August apparently having been made back in April."[35] Such view is supported by a former political counselor of Putin in his presidency time Vladimir Milov, who also pointed out that the South Ossetian government had been infiltrated by Russian siloviki.[36] [ source ]

And the problem with making plans for a war is...what? Or is this century really about preemptive strikes, like John Stewart put it?

This huge problem of independance was introduced by Bush administration in Kossovo case aiming to make every country weaker except America.

Now after Kossovo & stupid Saakashvilli war it would be a torture for both Ossetins & Abkhazes to stay in Georgia state.

I should underline that the Russian position concerning this two regions until that stupid overkill in Ossetia happened was very similar to western. Besides, you should know that Ossetins & Abkhazes lived in Russian state long before USSR and had no problems with that. They found themselves separated from Russians & faced to Georgians (long history of misunderstanding between them) in 1 hour after USSR destruction.

This is one of the reasons why the Russian answer for Ossetia attack was tough. Another thing is that we, Russians, now have a little trust for westerners. We dismissed Warsaw block, returned troops home from all the world after USSR collapse, closed bases on Cuba & so on. Gorbachev had promises that NATO wouldn't consume post-soviet eastern Europeans. But what we see now? Anti-Russian & anti-Warsaw-Pact block NATO still exists, rearms & comes closer to the Russian board, though there's no USSR & no Warsaw-Pact

Again, there are American ships near Russian boarder right now, not Russian ships near American coast.

So who is a threat?

we, Russians, now have a little trust for westerners.

Consider the feeling mutual, as we "Westerners" have little trust of Russia.

And by Russia, I am referring to the government, and not necessarily its people.

Pick a date and make it suit your view! South Ossetia was an Autonomous Oblast from 1922 to 1990, prior to the revolution it was part of the Russian Empire as was Georgia since 1801. Plenty more reason for Russia to take an interest than US involvement in Iraq.

Why should they mate? They let South Ossetia leave and be a part of Georgia in ~1989 right? They did so because because they had larger problems on their hands (collapse of their politically structure) now that they have time for them they care? Sorry about the exact dates.. but it does not change much of anything in what I said does it?

So it's fine for the US to bomb the hell out of Baghdad or Belgrade, but not for Russia to defend its citizens and peace keepers from Georgian aggression? A Georgian aggression, it should be added, that has been continuous since 1989 and culminated in indiscriminate attacks on civilians.

What Russia cannot do, to use this event as pretext to redraw borders or to imprison Georgia within an iron curtain of oppression. Let the UN resolve this, for it was the UN who decided what Georgia's borders should be! The UN must speak out now!

it was the UN who decided what Georgia's borders should be

The Kingdom of Georgia was formed a long time before the UN.

Alkimija, you are dead wrong in throwing the U.S. anti-terrorism actions in Afghanistan and Iraq into the discussion. If you want a fair comparison, tell us if the U.S. is bullying Mexico or Canada, its immediate neighbors, with convoys of tanks and missiles, as Russia does. The U.S. does not bully its neighbors, not in this century! Neither Mexico nor Canada feel threatened! Russia, however, has a long, infamous history of bullying its neighbors. Countries, especially satellite countries, fear Russia! This and only this is what the free world wants to stop! For this has to stop!

The US has been bullying its neighbour Cuba for nearly 50 years.

The US has been bullying its neighbour Cuba for nearly 50 years.

That I'll somewhat agree with. I think the isolation of Cuba by the US has gone on long enough. We need to end the embargo. Its hypocritical that we have such open arms to China, but give the cold shoulder to Cuba...

And this use of weapons against Georgian Army WAS NOT PLANNED by Russians and for sure WAS PROVOCED and happened RIGHT NEAR THE BOARDER!!! Now count yourself only well-known military operations PLANNED & held by Americans in the same period of 20 years THOUSAND MILES AWAY FROM THE AMERICA:

1.1st Iraq war
2.Somali operations
3.Serbia war
4.Afghanistan war
5.2d Iraq war

"And this use of weapons against Georgian Army WAS NOT PLANNED by Russians and for sure WAS PROVOCED and happened RIGHT NEAR THE BOARDER!!! "

Are you telling me that Russia just "coincidentally" had a huge invasion force sitting near the border doing nothing?