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— U.S. and NATO allies will embrace fledgling Eastern European nations during international meetings this week, in a what will be seen as a sharp message to Russia that further aggression in the region will not be tolerated.
Coming on the heels of Russia's invasion of Georgia in August, nervous NATO allies will likely tread a bit lightly, torn between their desire to display a show of strength and their worries about inflaming tensions with an increasingly belligerent Russian bear.
Senior defense officials traveling with Defense Secretary Robert Gates to the NATO meeting in Budapest later this week said there is no deliberate effort to needle Russia. But they said Moscow must get the message that its recent actions will not diminish the Bush administration's commitment to Georgia and Ukraine.
"If Russia is feeling anything these days it is isolation as a consequence of its disproportionate use of force in Georgia," said Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell, who is traveling with Gates on the trip.
The isolation will be evident as Gates attends the meeting of the Southeastern Europe Defense Ministerial in Macedonia, and then continues to the NATO meeting in Budapest. Russian officials are not expected to attend the NATO meeting. And the NATO-Russia Council — which has met in most of the NATO sessions over the past two years — will not convene.
The lack of that meeting is part of the overall U.S. strategy since Russia invaded its smaller neighbor Georgia in August. The Bush administration is trying to exclude Russia from partnerships that once offered an implicit invitation toward Europe, but stopping short of outright insults to Moscow.
Senior officials traveling with Gates said the key message is to convey support for the smaller former Soviet bloc nations, even as their campaign to join NATO appears unlikely to yield results this year. Germany and others in Western Europe have said they would block further U.S. efforts this year to put Georgia on a formal track toward membership.
"It would be a real mistake to view the secretary's trip as a move to inflame relations with Russia," said Morrell. "The purpose is to work with our allies on common goals. But while we are not looking for the opportunity to exacerbate the tensions that have developed, we are also not going to neglect our responsibilities in that part of the world."
Tensions with Russia have spiked over the past two years, stoked by U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Europe and the strengthening bonds between former Soviet republics and the West. The pot boiled over when Russian troops moved deep into Georgia in an ongoing dispute over that country's two breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Georgia had launched an attack to regain control over South Ossetia, and that prompted Russia to respond and rout the Georgian forces, in what critics said was an excessive display of force. Russian forces destroyed Georgian military infrastructure and remained on Georgian soil long after a U.S.-backed cease-fire was signed.
Stephen Flanagan, director of the International Security Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. and its NATO allies must take some type of specific action to deter future aggression by Russia.
"There is a prudent midpoint between poking them in the eye and showing them some resolve," said Flanagan, a former National Security Council policy adviser on European issues. Eastern European nations, he said, need reassurance that if there is a threat to their security, NATO will be there for them.
Flanagan called for a decisive show of unity that could include military exercises in the region involving NATO allies.
Russia has bitterly opposed the prospect of NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, who once were part of the former Soviet Republic. And some NATO allies worry that not showing strong support for the two countries could be seen as bowing to pressure from Moscow.
At the same time, however, they are loath to provoke Russia, which has complained loudly about the ongoing plans for a missile defense system in Europe. The U.S. has forged agreements to put a radar base near Prague in the Czech Republic, and 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.
Moscow has threatened action against Poland, and says the planned installations pose a threat to Russian security.
Gates has urged calm, in the wake of the brief Russia-Georgia war that enraged Europe and the U.S. A Russia expert who formerly led the CIA, Gates said Moscow is not seeking global dominance, but instead is looking to "exorcise past humiliations" and recapture its glory days.
The U.S. also needs Russian support on other international conflicts, including efforts to deal with the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.
Meanwhile, however, U.S. defense officials said that U.S. Gen. John Craddock, who is NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, is talking to NATO leaders about doing military risk assessments for countries in the region, likely beginning with Estonia, a former Soviet republic that is a member of NATO.
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On the Net:
NATO: http://www.nato.int/
Defense Department: http://www.defenselink.mil
