Greenspan: US GDP to decline significantly

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday there is no doubt the world economy is in a very severe recession and that U.S. gross domestic product will decline significantly in the last three months of the year.

Speaking at a business lunch in Toronto, Greenspan said the economy is not quite in a free fall but something close to it.

"That we are in a recession, very severe, there's no question," Greenspan said. "Gross domestic product in the United States in the fourth quarter is going to be down significantly."

The former Fed chairman said early data for October show the GDP in a severe contraction that could top a 3 percent annual rate of decline.

"We know we are going down and there's very little we can do about that," Greenspan said.

U.S. home prices and stock prices are critical, he noted. Housing values might have another 5 to 10 percent to decline before they bottom, which could come sometime in the first half of next year, he said.

"It's important to recognize we are not in quite a free fall but something close to it," Greenspan said. "This economy, and indeed the world economy, has tilted over and is moving down fairly aggressively, pretty much across the board."

Greenspan, who was the head of the U.S. central bank for 18 1/2 years before stepping down in 2006, said stock prices are important because higher prices increase equity and improve balance sheets.

"If the value of equity goes up, that amount of capital is available to be disbursed most any where," he said. "Stock prices tend to lead to recovery. There comes a point where the market gets exhausted on the downside and that to me is going to be a very critical variable as to when we actually turn it around. There's no way of preventing what's going on now. That was caused by the shock of the financial system a couple of months ago."

Greenspan, 82, described it as a once-in-a-century event.

He said the current pattern has all the characteristics of a market bottom.

"All bottoms look like what we're looking at now, but it doesn't follow that this bottom always leads to a recovery," he said. "It may just be another stage before you go down again, and I'm not going to forecast where we are going because I frankly don't have a clue."

In his testimony before the U.S. House Oversight Committee last month, Greenspan acknowledged that the crisis has exposed flaws in his thinking and in the workings of the free-market system.

He said then that his belief that banks would be more prudent in their lending practices because of the need to protect their stockholders had been proven wrong by the current crisis. He called this a "mistake" in his views and said he had been shocked by that.

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Greenspan Sees Sharp Drop In U.S. GDP In Q4

The New York Times

Fri Nov 7

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