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The discussion about retirement this week over on Newsvine drew a number of variations on the same theme. What should I do with my 401(k) account now? Sell my stocks at a loss? Or hold on and hope the market comes back?
As with many questions about personal finance, there are no absolutes. That's why they call it “personal” finance.
In any market, the answer depends heavily on how long you have before you expect to retire. (Or hope to, at least.) The closer you are to needing the money — for retirement, college tuition or the down payment on a house — the greater your risk of holding stocks.
That's why, when it comes to investing for retirement, two people holding the same stocks are exposed to very different levels of risk. I'm 56, my son is 20. His risk is a lot lower than mine because the odds of making money in stocks are much better for someone with a 45-year time horizon than for someone like me with only 10 years left before I may need the money to live on.
But this is not just any market. It's true that if you cash out stocks now, you risk missing the market rebound. Investors who sold into the 1987 stock market crash learned that lesson the hard way. But if you go back a little further in history, the recovery from some financial panics took a lot longer. When the stock market sold off during the Great Depression, it didn't return to its 1929 peak until the mid-1950s. There was plenty of time to “get back in.”
So the decision to stay in stocks rests heavily on whether you think this is a "V-shaped" pullback or whether we're in for a longer, more gradual recovery. That's impossible to predict. But it’s also hard to come up with a scenario that would provide overnight relief for the widespread problems facing the global economy and financial markets. There’s a significant risk that we haven't heard the worst of the bad news yet.
The central question is whether stocks are priced correctly at current levels or whether they've been wildly oversold. To answer that, you have to know how well the company whose stock you own will weather the ongoing financial storm. Some companies — especially those with lots of cash on their balance sheets and products people will need no matter what happens — may come out of this much stronger. Those stocks have already held up relatively well because people who want to stay in the market have moved money into these safer harbors.
Lastly, since no one can predict where markets are headed, you have to consider how much market volatility you can take. For some investors, it's better to realize losses now, get a good night’s sleep and regroup. Take a look at what's left, figure out where that leaves you and see what it will take to get your plan back on track. If the market comes back to life, you can always get in later. If the market heads lower, you've stopped the bleeding.
So, if you have a lot of time, you may want to ride this out. But, with apologies to the Coen brothers, this is No Market for Old Men.
This is another good example of a personal finance question that doesn't come with a one-size-fits-all answer. There are just too many variables in each household budget to say there's a "right" or "wrong" choice.
So you really need to do the math: If the cost of borrowing outside your retirement account exceeds the cost of paying penalties for "early withdrawal," you may be better off using those savings. Over the longer term though, you're going to have a much harder time rebuilding those savings.
A lot depends on the immediate circumstances that force you to consider pulling money out of a retirement plan. If you've lost your job and need the money to tide you over to the next one, tapping retirement funds may be the best option. If you're simply falling behind every month and can't keep up with your bills, spending down your savings is not sustainable. The only long-term solution is to cut spending, increase your income — or both.
So before you tap that savings account, take one more hard look at where the money is going. If you don't have a budget, make one. Before making the difficult choice to withdraw retirement savings, you may be better off making some even harder choices about where you spend your money.
In hindsight, it may seem obvious. But it's important to remember why so many people overlooked the risk of carrying too much of their savings in stocks too close to retirement.
For one thing, we've all become conditioned to a powerful, long-term upward trend in the stock market. For most of the past 25 years — the period during which most of today's near-retirees were accumulating their investments — avoiding stocks meant giving up a substantial opportunity to grow a bigger nest egg. Those of us north of 50 also remember the devastating effects of high inflation in the 1970s on fixed income investments. As long as inflation remained a threat, stocks provided one of the few ways to protect a portfolio heavily weighted in cash or fixed income investments like bonds.
The recent market collapse (there's really no other word to use) also underscores a risk that has been building gradually for decades — one that hasn't come into clear focus until recently. That's the risk we all confronted when company-sponsored "defined benefit" pensions were gradually replaced by individual retirement accounts.
Under the old system, the money backing our retirement was pooled in one big account and managed full-time by a team of professionals. It may not be rocket science, but managing investments is a skill that some people have and some don't. The more widely that management responsibility is dispersed, the more likely it's going to fall to someone who doesn't have those skills — whether the individual account holder or the "financial adviser" who is selling the investments.
It remains to be seen whether the destruction of trillions of dollars in retirement savings leads to changes in the current system. It's hard to see how we could go back to company-managed defined benefit plans. But last six months have exposed serious flaws in the retirement system we have and derailed millions of retirement plans.
So maybe it's time to take a look at other ideas. Anyone have any suggestions?
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 | As nest eggs shrink, many defer retirement | Associated Press | Tue Nov 18 | 210 |
 | The Bear Is Cool: Overcoming Fears of Falling Stock Prices | t r u t h o u t | Mon Nov 24 | 0 |
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{"commentId":4180415,"authorDomain":"surfacemp"}
Each one of us do have "personal" finance and our investments are different. Thats why I don"t want Miss Suzzie "Q" or anyone else advising me what to do anymore. Been there- done that. We should make good solid decisions on our own. No one really knows the future.
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#1 - Sun Nov 23, 2008 8:21 PM EST{"commentId":4182349,"authorDomain":"wingod"}
Anyone who sells their 401k when it is in the middle a down market like this is simply not paying attention to how the market works. Yea It could go down another thousand points but if you look at the history of the market for the past 100 years, if you keep it in, you will come out ahead.
This is not speculation, it is history. Yea the USA might fall tomorrow and the DOW goes down to a 1000 but if that happens you are going to have a lot more problems than your 401k value.
{"commentId":4182349,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"wingod"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":4183229,"authorDomain":"gregziglar"}
Marv, that's a good point.
We are all accountable for our own decisions. I would advise anyone to base their decision on their own personal situations.
Then, in 5 years, or 10 years, that person can say, "Well, it was my decision. I did the best I could do."
{"commentId":4183229,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"gregziglar"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":4187822,"authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
Space guy, If you look at the markets over the last 100 years you will see that the stock market between 1920 and 1960 did virtually nothing, nice flat line graph, no gains. It took off exponetially after the 70's. I imagine that if we could view the graph of the 20's and 30's microscopically it would mimic what is happening today, however because it is based on the current bumps of 500 or losses of 500 barely appear in the long term graphics.
My advice, get out now. This economic situation is much more dire than that preceeding the great depression. It is entirely built on an unstable/non-existant foundation.
{"commentId":4187822,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":4222703,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
Draw out every cent RIGHT NOW and use it to purchase gold coins at your best price.
Gold is fairly low right now. It will certainly rise with the deficit. It may peak at $2,000 an ounce by the end of 2009. Then sell your gold and put the money you gained back into a safe instrument.
I have already done this myself, although I only put half the money into the coin. The remainder went into a solid credit union at a low rate. Go to a reputable dealer with the current coin prices from that day in hand.
Right now it is hard to trust anything else.
{"commentId":4222703,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":4180559,"authorDomain":"samvickiehardin"}
Personally, I am going to hang in there. It is all I can do. If I sell, everything left will go to the taxes and penalties. But, on the other hand, with the stock prices down the way they are, I am able to buy more shares. So, I choose to ride out the storm and when the stock markets recover, I will be that much farther ahead. One thing, I have a diversified portfolio, and that has helped. I do not have all my eggs in one basket. Some have held fairly steady and others have fallen more, so maybe it will help balance the losses a little bit.
{"commentId":4180559,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"samvickiehardin"}
- 1 vote
#2 - Sun Nov 23, 2008 8:37 PM EST{"commentId":4180696,"authorDomain":"sunnylady01"}
I would like to access my IRA without penalty. Perhaps they could ease the penalty during these difficult times.
{"commentId":4180696,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"sunnylady01"}
- 4 votes
#3 - Sun Nov 23, 2008 8:54 PM EST{"commentId":4186621,"authorDomain":"wayne-cochran"}
I too would like to take my lump sum pension without any penalties, if Congress would allow it. I could then bail myself out and retire immediately paying off all of my indebtedness (mortgages, credit cards, etc.) and leave a vacant spot for one unemployed person. I wonder how many other long term workers are thinking the same way.
{"commentId":4186621,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"wayne-cochran"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":4187883,"authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
sadly, these type of bailouts are only reserved for those considered "too big to fail"
{"commentId":4187883,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
{"commentId":4197171,"authorDomain":"ohmaud"}
I sent a similar suggestion to the Obama Team through Change.gov. I am not making any money on my 401K, lost 35% or better and have debt. If I could nail my bills by taking out a loan against my 401K, then I could repay MYSELF, assuring that I would rebuild my life savings, relieving me of high % on cards and creating a cash infusion into the institutions. If we could do this, like Wayne stated, it would really relieve the daily cost of living and frankly, put cash in my pocket. Why don't we deserve the same consideration for "bail out". However, I do not consider it a bail out, because it is my own money. Also, someone stated we should have known better and I disagree. We were encouraged to becomne self-sufficient, received incentives for doing it, lack the soophistication to manage stocks, so put it in funds that target our retirement year and still got out clocks cleaned. I do not see why we cannot flex our own money. It is all we have left.
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{"commentId":4181712,"authorDomain":"waraksas1"}
Once you've sold the stock, you've taken the loss and it's over. After 9/11, it took 2 years for the market to rebound completely. In this instance, it's 2010 or longer. If you don't need the money, I believe it's a 3 year plus time frame for recovery. I. like many, have lost big bucks in this market. I went 100% treasuries---TIPS and I bonds. Right now, we're worried about deflation ;BUT, inflation will be back BIG TIME ! My personal time frame is 7 years. Atleast with treasuries, you'll always get your par value back. In addition, I'm looking at notes also and some STRONG preferred stocks.
{"commentId":4181712,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"waraksas1"}
#4 - Sun Nov 23, 2008 11:04 PM EST{"commentId":4183170,"authorDomain":"dungbeetlemania"}
This is not science, please remove the tag.
{"commentId":4183170,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"dungbeetlemania"}
- 2 votes
#5 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 6:51 AM EST{"commentId":4184106,"authorDomain":"gkatzenm"}
This shouldnt be that hard to figure out. Buying high and selling low is not good business unless simple survival is at stake.
{"commentId":4184106,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"gkatzenm"}
#6 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:47 AM EST{"commentId":4184110,"authorDomain":"gismoboy2001"}
Down-turns happen almost like clock-work, they happen, then they come back. There is a basic piece of knowledge that everyone seems to forget....goes something like this...."Buy low, sell high" - peple panic, sell when the market is in the tank or sit and stop putting money in until things recover.....breaking every basic idea of investing. Why would you sell low? and buy high? Here's a few basic things.....
1.) YOU HAVE NOT LOST ANYTHING, UNLESS YOU ACTUALL SELL IT!!!
2.) Dollar Cost Averaging.....if you were buying at $100 a share, now it's $50....buy buy buy! Your average cost per share goes down.....SO, lets say you had $20K in your 401K. It's now valued at $10K....if you start buying lots...your overall value is down....so as it approaches $20K again in a couple years (WHICH IT WILL) - you've gained all the way up instead of just going back to where you were....
3.) We're pretty much at the bottom, start buying...ride it all the way up! Saying...well it could go lower does not make any sense...remember it will come back and unless your are selling it does not matter if it goes down anymore. To think you will loose everything ot everything will go to zero is basically like saying every fortune 500 company will go completely bankrupt...silly thought.
This really isn't rocket science people. If you are selling or not buying you are simply being foolish. Remember, buy low sell high, when people are scared, BUY....When people are greedy, SELL.
{"commentId":4184110,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"gismoboy2001"}
- 1 vote
#7 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:48 AM EST{"commentId":4187959,"authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
Debtranger,
Don't give cruddy advice. You have failed to cite any credible background that would allow you to call a bottom to this, and to the knowledgeable you appear to be someone ready to take advantage of those who might take your advice. Shame on you!
{"commentId":4187959,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"scoffelt"}
{"commentId":4188460,"authorDomain":"samvickiehardin"}
Debtranger, that is why I intend to ride it out. I am still paying out each week for my stocks, and getting more shares while it's cheaper. And my company matches it all. And if the bottom does fall out, I am out only what I actually paid in which in reality isn't as much as people would think.
{"commentId":4188460,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"samvickiehardin"}
{"commentId":4222719,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
A consideration: This crisis is far worse than '87. It is estimated that mortgage-backed securities will eventually account for more than 50 trillion in losses worldwide, just on the bad paper alone.
This does not account for job losses and the resulting loss of tax revenue and everything that goes with major layoffs worldwide.
Look...they had a guy with a PHD in Economics on MSNBC last week who said, "Nobody really knows, nobody really understands it all...' He may be right.
{"commentId":4222719,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":4700148,"authorDomain":"tinbender1000"}
Debtranger
It worked fine with my company stock, During the last recession it was almost worthless, i bought all i could afford and sold it 10 years latter and made a healthy return.The problem is everyone wants to play the market, take no risk and cry when they lose.
{"commentId":4700148,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"tinbender1000"}
{"commentId":4184560,"authorDomain":"azfdad48"}
Before you decide to sell at what could very well be a bottom, just remember that every trade is a zero-sum transaction. There must be a buyer to match up with every seller. Consider the possibility that the buyer of your shares might be a lot smarter than you, and is more than happy to take those shares off your hands at today's fire-sale prices. Is that really what you hoped to get out of stock ownership?
{"commentId":4184560,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"azfdad48"}
#8 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:32 AM EST{"commentId":4184562,"authorDomain":"pierab"}
Ideas?. . . With regards to what to investment in . . . invest in what you believe in. Do you use the product? the service? Then buy a basket of these sorts of things (or mutual funds in that sort of thing). Example: I refuse to buy American cars, and I will not invest in their stocks or bonds (unless Uncle Sam forces me to). Municipal bonds (and funds) make me feel like I'm contributing to the US -- schools, water, sewer -- these are good things. But the bonds don't yield much and some states like mine tax munis of other states. Some laws could be changed here.
With regards to how not to invest: If you look at the portfolio mix of e.g. the Vanguard target-retirement funds you see fairly aggressive stock percentages -- e.g. 50% for someone retiring in 2010. (And these guys are relatively sane). Given a 50% decline in stock value that takes you down to 75% of your original investment. Secondly, they like most investment firms, seem to like international stocks. The argument has been that international stocks "don't track" the US markets and offer "diversity". Absolute rubbish. I think it's Bogle himself (founder of Vanguard as it is now constructed) who states that he doesn't like international stock funds just because of the fact that they track the US stocks pretty closely. (And they are super-high risk, as evidenced these past two months -- been there, done that). Bogle also would have put the stock-bond mix to 35% - 65% for a 65 year old man. I'd agree with this more conservative approach, after having experienced my own meltdown. Finally, be wary of TIPS. Have you seen the crater-hole they've fallen into? They're keyed to inflation, so if there's no inflation, you are screwed, and if the gov't drops the interest rates you're doubly screwed. (Actually, if you look at the long trend of TIPS they're probably at fair price as we speak).
As for selling . . . oooohh that's a tough one. Depends if you believe in America or not. If you don't believe in her, sell, for sure. And maybe your age: If you're young, don't sell. And if you can offset capital gains with capital losses, then sell and maybe buy something you want (also depressed) but watch out for the "wash" laws . . .
To conclude: Wildbill's formula (subject to change without notice): (no international as an "investment") + (bond percentage = your age, munis or total bond fund, keep taxable bonds/funds in your IRA or 401K) + (no more than 10% TIPS, this one worries me, I dunno) + (no more than a teensy bit of play money in wild investments e.g. international is okay here) + ("cash" (money markets) enough to live on for a year, and to act as a "pool" for dividends and interest) + ( a strong stomach ).
{"commentId":4184562,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"pierab"}
#9 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:33 AM EST{"commentId":4184982,"authorDomain":"tony-21"}
The "personal" in personal finance has never met more than it does at this point in history. "Buy and " hold "decisions really depend on how old you are currently. Personally, I would RUN not walk to exit the market at the next 400 point uptick. With all the bailouts happening now, the US dollar will suffer greatly over the next 2-3 months, if not over the next 3-5 years. Based on the fundamentals, I can see stock market indicies tanking further, possibly to the 5000 level within the next 3-4 months. Sure, there will be rip your face off upticks in that time period, however to stay in the market now would mean you're betting that the bottom has been reached, and the US dollar will NOT tank in response to the FED printing presses working overtime to reflate the world. In my opinion, that would be an incorrect wager. and, IF you get a clue that the rating agencies intend to downgrade the US Treasuries AAA rating, that would be a clear signal to head for the hills!
{"commentId":4184982,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"tony-21"}
#10 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:12 AM EST{"commentId":4185070,"authorDomain":"michael-21"}
{"commentId":4187845,"authorDomain":"danmahoney"}
I recently heard that safe sales are up 75%! I think community banks are where folks should be stashing their cash. They are safe, offer great yields (www.checkingfinder.com) and by putting your cash in local community banks you are essentially supporting your local businesses that get their loans from local banks. I'm surprised people go to these big banks when they are changing their names on a daily basis...
{"commentId":4187845,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"danmahoney"}
- 1 vote
#12 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 2:48 PM EST{"commentId":4188673,"authorDomain":"waraksas1"}
Right now, stocks are at prices you may not see again in your lifetime. Coke and Pepsi aren't going out of business. McDonalds and Yum Brands are just starting to develop in China. Energy will be back. CHK, CNX, RRC, just to mention a few. Think atleast 3 years down the line. The next time crude hits 150 a barrel----you want to own some of that. When housing rebounds, you want to be there for that. Buffet sank 5 billion in Goldman Sachs and it went down a lot further---patience---he knows it'll be back. If you have the bucks, stocks are on sale now. Look at TIPS and I Bonds---treasuries.
{"commentId":4188673,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"waraksas1"}
#13 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 3:49 PM EST{"commentId":4191368,"authorDomain":"akshoe59"}
I cashed my 401k in with a $9000 loss and invested what i had left on a house. I think the real estate market will recover faster than the stock market. I paid $70,000 for my house and it appraised for $88,000 so I look at it like I got my money back double! Time will tell the real story!
{"commentId":4191368,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"akshoe59"}
#14 - Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:30 PM EST{"commentId":4208931,"authorDomain":"jim9"}
the new house is not liquid...you might have to seel for 40,000 in an emergency . you could concieaveably never find a buyer....even if you leave 401k in gov funds it is safer more liquid and bound to make more in the long and short run
{"commentId":4208931,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"jim9"}
{"commentId":4209002,"authorDomain":"jim9"}
I got out to safe government investments before the fall...now I am thinking that I should go back into stocks 100% as market can not really go below 8000.
I may take the gov investments until after the election when the stock market should start to rally....I can not understand how so many got caught...there were plenty of signs to pull back....Never listen to the buy and hold guys...they just want your money...an 8th grader can time the market.
Next year when market ralys back while everyone else is just getting back the 40% they lost i will be able to double my money.
{"commentId":4209002,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"jim9"}
#15 - Wed Nov 26, 2008 10:45 AM EST{"commentId":4210691,"authorDomain":"jim9"}
It's to late to cash out now...I believe, I believe , I believe ...I'm falling in debt.
In the futur you need to flee to side lines at a 20% loss.
{"commentId":4210691,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"jim9"}
#16 - Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:13 PM EST{"commentId":4364365,"authorDomain":"jwvernor"}
I like your style DebtRanger... buy, buy, buy BUT outside of a 401k. Many of you and the author have failed to take into account the new Marxist regime. As we waste our time with this useless blogging, the theiving Dems are plotting to literally steal your 401k. Not the union or government pensions, not social "security" but your... repeat, YOUR hard earned money. If your are over 59.5, then cash out, pay the taxes and buy gold, houses, guns or whatever you wish. Walk away with something. If you are not 59.5, you'd better pray that the illegals stop getting your social security. If so, your wealth just got redistributed. You might not like it at first... it'll take some getting use to...
You don't know where the bottom is and you don't know if this is short term. The important thing is to get yourself out of debt and stay there. The "government" can't fix this... economics is not their strong point.
{"commentId":4364365,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"jwvernor"}
- 1 vote
#17 - Tue Dec 9, 2008 7:15 PM EST{"commentId":4412304,"authorDomain":"eftc"}
EXCUSE ME - lllebokwillyou - I think the Boooosh Administration has done a fair job at TAKING everything, EVERYONES HAS ALREADY!!!
Only a REPUBLI-CANT would bring politics into this thread!
I also have written to Obama's team at change.gov with the suggestion of removing "Penalties" for withdrawls from 401K's. This is all some Americans have left to SURVIVE? Sinking further into debt, helps on one but the CC companies....
I personally will be OK - as your "handle" asks, but hunderds of thousands, put into this position by YOUR Administration, will NOT! It's a matter of survival after the last 8 years!
I also think we are close to the bottom, and if you can, BUY, BUY, BUY. It will come back and you will be that much the better. My guess is within the next 3-5 years, things will be well on the way NORTH!
(Silver, Gold is not a bad idea right now either) Look at the futures, see who is buying all the Silver/Gold! Manufacturing around the world, depends on it for the new "Electronic Age"
{"commentId":4412304,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"eftc"}
{"commentId":4364480,"authorDomain":"jwvernor"}
James O'hara, you're a funny guy... gotta believe! I never turn a paper loss into a real one, but I gotta admit that this time, your 20% rule is pretty sound... as long as your not adding a 20% penalty to it.
The signs were clear toward with outrageous energy costs and a potential change to a nut-case in office... but if you anticipated the bad loans and unions pushing companies towards critical mass, you are a genious.
{"commentId":4364480,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"jwvernor"}
- 1 vote
#18 - Tue Dec 9, 2008 7:25 PM EST{"commentId":5403683,"authorDomain":"smize-1"}
I am 63 years old and have recently retired. When I left the company I moved my 401K into a Traditional IRA but have watched it reduce like everyone else has. My question is would I be better off withdrawing what is left and moving to a savings account or leave it alone? Can anyone help this finanically illererate old person? Thanks.
{"commentId":5403683,"threadId":"426749","contentId":"2143357","authorDomain":"smize-1"}
- 1 vote
#19 - Mon Feb 16, 2009 5:35 PM EST{"commentId":10407314,"authorDomain":"breelaboy"}
{"commentId":10438091,"authorDomain":"brianalampton"}
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