Retailers expect to report dismal November sales

Tue Dec 2, 2008 5:42 PM EST

business, glance, sales, retail, november

Retailers got some relief on the day after Thanksgiving, but the spending likely wasn't enough to salvage a drab November from showing a drop in sales. The rampant discounting needed to attract financially strapped shoppers will probably hurt fourth-quarter earnings as well.

Here's the breakdown:

_November in focus: Same-store sales are expected to fall 1 percent in November, according to the Goldman Sachs-International Council of Shopping Centers, which would follow a 0.9 percent decline in October. The November drop would mark the weakest performance for that month since at least 1969 when the index began. Same-store sales are sales at stores opened at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health.

_Reality Check: The deteriorating economy clearly depressed November sales, but another factor is the calendar — a late Thanksgiving meant that the month's reporting period does not include a full week of post-Thanksgiving shopping compared with a year ago.

_Profit Squeeze: Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to decline by 15.6 percent from the year-ago period, according to Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics LLC. Excluding discounter Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which has benefited as people look for bargains, that drop would be 22.9 percent.