Analysis: Japan's ruling party could fall in vote

TOKYO — A more independent foreign policy, less closely tied to the will of Washington. Tighter fiscal measures, with a slimmer government and a shorter leash on Japan's powerful bureaucrats. More military missions abroad with international peacekeeping forces.

The Liberal Democratic Party is widely expected to lose its grip on parliament in elections next month after nearly 55 years in power, and the country's leading opposition party is promising those changes and a raft of others.

But, Japan is asking, can they deliver?

The party that oversaw Japan's economic rise after the devastation of World War II is facing a fatal combination: an economy in deep recession, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan gaining in popularity and a leadership that appears to have run out of ways to deal with today's problems.

"I think what we are seeing is the beginning of the end of the Liberal Democratic Party's dominance of Japanese politics," said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University's campus in Tokyo. "I think the LDP has been in power too long; it's been corrupted by that power. I think it's run out of fresh ideas."

He and many other analysts say they believe the Democratic Party is positioned to win the Aug. 30 election.

In the most recent poll, published Wednesday, 45 percent of voters said they thought opposition leader Yukio Hatoyama was most suited to lead the country, versus 25 percent for current Prime Minister Taro Aso.

That in itself is a huge shift for Japan.

The ruling party, though riddled with infighting and financial scandals, has long been the comfortable choice for Japan's voters, who felt financially secure and generally satisfied. At the same time, the opposition was too fragmented or radical to win.

But with the economy in tatters and Hatoyama leading a centrist opposition party that is gaining public trust, the balance appears to have shifted.

Unemployment hit 5.2 percent in May, the highest in five years, and fears are growing in a rapidly aging society about the nation's future.

The opposition has carefully cultivated such fears.

Under Hatoyama, a clever and dogged strategist, the Democrats have won support with ceaseless criticism of the ruling party and an emphasis that Japan is in real danger.

Japan, Hatoyama says, needs better leaders who are more in touch to get out of its economic mess. He says that under his party, the country would trim government spending, lower taxes and distance itself from U.S. foreign policy so it can take a more independent stand, particularly on military missions abroad.

Hatoyama and his party have been sharply critical of Japan's involvement in military missions in Iraq and the Indian Ocean because, they say, Tokyo's stance has been overly influenced by its desire to curry favor with Washington.

Instead, they say Japan should become more involved in U.N.-related peacekeeping missions. They have also suggested that Japan develop its often bumpy ties with China.

The two parties have a lot of common ground, however.

Both are generally conservative, and many of the Democratic Party's leaders started their careers in the ruling party. The opposition party's second most powerful member is Ichiro Ozawa, who was a senior executive in the ruling party before helping to orchestrate a splintering of the party that led to a brief fall from power in 1993.

The opposition was only briefly able to keep a coalition together, and the Liberal Democrats quickly regained their control of parliament.

The ruling party enjoyed a small renaissance in 2000 when charismatic Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi spearheaded several reform measures. But after he stepped down in 2006, the party spiraled into a mire of indecisiveness and internecine battles.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have emerged as an option that reverberates with voters.

To many, voting for the opposition would represent a clear statement of discontent with the ruling party, but not such a radical departure that it would add to the already growing feeling of political uncertainty.

Still, the election outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

The ruling party could make gains if voters shy away from empowering an opposition that is untested in office, or if the opposition is hit by more scandal.

Ozawa recently had to resign as leader of the opposition over an aide's questionable financial dealings.

"A lot can happen in 40 days. People still are reserving judgment," said Temple University's Kingston, citing recent polls showing nearly 40 percent of voters are not affiliated to any party. "Whichever party is better able to appeal to that floating electorate is going to win."

___

EDITOR'S NOTE — Eric Talmadge is the Tokyo News Editor for The Associated Press and has been reporting in Japan for 20 years.

Back To Top

Japanese poll: More voters favor opposition party

Associated Press

Sat Jul 11

0