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US ind. production better-than-expected in August

Wed Sep 9, 2009 2:00 PM EDT
us-news, business, politics, us, economy, federal-reserve, fed-chairman-ben-bernanke
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
< PreviousNext >
showing 1 of 28 photos
<p>US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, left, and US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner attend the first meeting of the day of the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting held at the Treasury in central London, Saturday Sept. 5, 2009. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will urge G20 finance ministers meeting in London not to be too hasty to end the emergency measures that saw huge amounts of money pumped into economies after the credit crunch, as they seek a way out of the crisis. (AP Photo/Geoff Caddick, Pool) </p>

US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke, left, and US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner attend the first meeting of the day of the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting held at the Treasury in central London, Saturday Sept. 5, 2009. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will urge G20 finance ministers meeting in London not to be too hasty to end the emergency measures that saw huge amounts of money pumped into economies after the credit crunch, as they seek a way out of the crisis. (AP Photo/Geoff Caddick, Pool)

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WASHINGTON — U.S. factories made more cars, clothing and other goods than expected in August, and inflation remained in check in the early stages of a broad economic recovery.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose 0.8 percent in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 0.6 percent increase. Last month's gain marked the second straight increase after the global recession dried up the appetites of customers worldwide.

"The back to back gains in industrial production provide further evidence the recession ended around July," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported that the so-called "core" Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in August. That is well within the Fed's comfort zone and means the central bank faces little pressure to raise its benchmark interest rate, a step it takes to ward off high inflation. The Fed has reduced the interest rate it charges banks for overnight loans to a record low of nearly zero in an effort to revive the economy.

Industrial production rose in a fairly broad-based pickup in August, according to the Fed data. The central bank also said production jumped 1 percent in July, twice as much as originally reported. Car manufacturing drove that gain.

Factory output — the single-biggest slice of overall industrial activity — also rose for the second straight month. It posted a 0.6 percent gain in August, following a 1.4 percent rise in July.

Auto production led the way, rising 5.5 percent last month due mainly to the government's Cash for Clunkers program. That followed a whopping 20.1 percent gain in July as General Motors and Chrysler reopened many plants that had been closed in May and June as the companies restructured and emerged from bankruptcy.

Even with production of autos and parts stripped out, manufacturing activity increased 0.4 percent last month.

On the inflation front, the CPI rose 0.4 percent in August, after a flat reading in July. Wall Street economists expected a 0.3 percent increase, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. Prices fell 1.5 percent in the past year, as gas prices dropped sharply from record levels last summer.

The core price index rose 0.1 percent, matching expectations. The 1.4 percent gain over the last 12 months is the smallest such increase in more than five years.

A 1.3 percent drop in the price of cars last month, the steepest fall in nearly 37 years, held back the core index. Discounts stemming from the clunkers program — which provided rebates of up to $4,500 to consumers who traded in older cars for newer, more fuel-efficient models — caused the decline.

The stock markets rose modestly in morning trading. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 30 points, and broader indices edged up.

Gas prices rose 9.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and accounted for 80 percent of the rise in the consumer price index. Still, gas prices are 30 percent below last year's record levels, when prices at the pump topped $4 a gallon.

Consumers have cut sharply back on their spending in response to the worst recession since the 1930s. That has made it difficult for retailers and manufacturers to raise prices, keeping inflation at its lowest levels in decades. Last month, the department said consumer prices fell 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending in July, the steepest drop since 1950.

Still, there are signs the economy is recovering and consumers may be willing to spend again. Retail sales jumped 2.7 percent in August, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, the biggest increase in more than three years.

With production rising, industrial companies idled less of their plants and equipment in August. The overall operating rate rose to 69.6 percent in, up from 69 percent in July.

Industrial companies are still operating well below capacity. The operating capacity in August was 11.3 percentage points below its average between 1972 and 2008. A healthy level is around 80 percent.

Because companies still have a lot of their plants unused, that also will be a force tamping down any inflation pressures.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday the recession is likely over, though he noted that the economy isn't likely to grow fast enough to lower unemployment anytime soon. Most economists expect the jobless rate to top 10 percent next year, up from its current 9.7 percent.

"It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time," Bernanke said.

Separately, the deficit in the broadest measure of foreign trade shrank in the spring to the lowest level in relation to the total economy in 10 years, another dramatic sign of how much the recession had reduced America's appetite for foreign goods.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday the deficit in the current account dropped to $98.8 billion in the April-June quarter. That represented 2.8 percent of the total economy as measured by the gross domestic product, the smallest percentage since the first quarter of 1999.

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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  • Public Discussion (33)
mike from wisc

More b#@$@t.

    Reply#1 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 3:26 PM EDT
    Eric AlbertDeleted
    Reply
    Will_4_Freedom

    How gullible do you think I am, anyway?

      Reply#2 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 3:34 PM EDT
      Something new please

      Even if they're right about Q3, it'll take a very robust holiday season to keep that going. With what's going on in terms of unemployment and foreclosures, I don't think that's likely. Then again, even if Q4 is flat, I suppose that's an improvement.

        Reply#3 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 3:41 PM EDT
        Will_4_Freedom

        I'm out of work... can't afford to stay in this house... can't sell this house for a decent amount. Grocery and energy bills going up... print more money, Gov, that will sure help inflation.

        Tell me again how the recession is over??

        • 3 votes
        #3.1 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 4:41 PM EDT
        Something new please

        So the recession isn't over till your life improves? For one thing, I'm not saying it's over. My comment was meant to express doubt regarding the conclusions and forward statements by the Fed. That aside, recessions aren't deemed over when the jobs are all back and everything returns to normal. While that may seem like the logical way to see it, the term "recession" is a term of art and has a specific meaning. That being said, I don't like the title of this article. Even if they're right, and we have a positive Q3, I don't think that means the recession is over. I'd like to see some sustained growth (2-3 quarters) before I draw that conclusion for myself.

        • 2 votes
        #3.2 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 4:59 PM EDT
        Will_4_Freedom

        Yes, I know all about the "indicators" and "projections", etc. I'm talking about the average person. The people out of work and faced with rising prices. The people stuck in home that has less value than the mortgage. From "OUR" point of view, it doesn't matter what the politicians say.

        • 1 vote
        #3.3 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:52 AM EDT
        hvymtl83

        Will,

        Those indicators and projections are important to you. Until the economy turns up, you won't get your job back and the value of your house won't rise.

        BTW, consumer spending is a very large component of our economy and it won't rise until some level of confidence is restored. And while that appears to now be the case, preaching against it doesn't help. In essense, you are calling against your own self interest. You should be cheering any good news rather than condemning it.

          #3.4 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:06 AM EDT
          Par4TheCourse

          It takes a certain amount of Confidence psychologically to get things on the move. This is what most of the economy is about. If you do not think it whole-heartedly in words and actions then things will remain the same or worsen. The inspiration within the market growing is a positive aspect and creates confidence, then feeding upon the positive creates worth.

            #3.5 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:28 PM EDT
            Reply
            dfizzDeleted
            RF373Deleted
            marcv-1026579

            When I see at least ONE quarter match last years quarter, then I will say things have become more stable. I service mainly the new construction market and retail replacement business and I still see declines in my monthly billing cycle compared to last years numbers. Richmond is still hit very hard (as noted above) with excessive housing inventory and job loss! Circuit City corporate center going down was a big blow to us! New construction home starts in the mid-Atlantic and southern states were off another 6% from January 09 to June 09. Some areas of the country did see a slight up tick in the first 6 months of this year with construction starts, which is encouraging, but very few.

            A consumer lead recovery is the only way out of this. Housing inventory needs to fall under 6 months and unemployment must be maintained at least below 9% to start any positive change in consumer mentality. Obama and congress must put their hand out to the small businesses. We are the employer of this country, not the Fortune 500 which has seen all the government bail outs!!! By the government standard unemployment stands at 9.7%. This will get as high as 11% if not higher by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010 if we stay the course of current strategy (my prediction). That is not good! Any positive, hard fought ground made will be short lived by inflation when all the printed money is being cycled into the system. I believe unemployment is calculated incorrectly by the way. It is much higher than 9.7% at this time. The administration conveniently does not use all the multipliers that should be used to get a more accurate measurement of the situation. The government cannot continue to buy our way out of this recession. I am not quite sure what they are up too or what in the world they are thinking? They are going against everything that any business exec what say NOT TO DO. It must be lead by consumer confidence, not government spending trillions of dollars that we do not have. Remodeling will not see a serious upswing until the housing prices stabilization takes place. The mass majority of homebuyers who higher my firm to assist them use their Home Equity Lines. This financial vehicle has been wiped clean by falling home prices. Over FOUR TRILLION DOLLARS AND GROWING EVERYDAY of home equity has disappeared! ( Folks, there is criminal activity going on within the Fed and Wall Street!!) Either the home owner has already used up what little home equity that was available to them for bills or the home is now worth far less than what they paid for it. The 2nd Mortgage crisis is at our doorstep now with unemployment continuing to grow. If we see 11+% - the housing industry as a whole will be gone and it will take years to recover due to the MASS of inventory!

            My Guess – Maybe end of 2nd qtr of 2011 we will see business (GDP) maintain a level of profitability and we will need to start adding needed employee’s. This guestimate is based on the American Dollar not collapsing due to the massive printing and spending theory of the government!

            Marc

            • 1 vote
            Reply#6 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 5:14 PM EDT
            antoniojvr

            I'm waiting for the collapse of the dollar. May actually happen in my lifetime...

              Reply#7 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 5:21 PM EDT
              Wildcard-781265

              It already has, the Ameriecean dollar is worthless on the open market, we have no was to back it up, it cost more to print a twenty dollar bill than it is worth.

              When Obama printed trillions of dollars, added to the present debt, we became a third class country where the only worth is our lands, and thats what is being offered up as collateral to linding countries, our nation.

                #7.1 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 9:02 PM EDT
                hvymtl83

                Worthless? I don't think so. I do some Forex. I have no problem trading the dollar. In fact, I expect the dollar to rise a bit in the coming months.

                  #7.2 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:13 AM EDT
                  Ben-1268009

                  If $20's are so worthless Wildcard, would you mind sending me all of yours?

                  • 1 vote
                  #7.3 - Wed Sep 16, 2009 4:30 PM EDT
                  Reply
                  Burlap Mudflap

                  Recession over or ending=bad news for GOPers, good news for BHO you betcha!!

                  • 3 votes
                  Reply#8 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 6:43 PM EDT
                  Mike-540389

                  Now that some of the data is in, some economists are reporting that on some metrics the start of this recession was worse than 1929. If we actually get sustained improvement, then either Larry Summers is really good or we got really lucky. Personally, I doubt that we're even close to being out of the woods. Nourial Roubini is prediciting a double dip recession, with this interlude being a calm before another storm. Let's hope the first time around Roubini was just another blind squirrel who happened to find an acorn.

                  • 3 votes
                  Reply#9 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 6:46 PM EDT
                  hvymtl83

                  Yes, this was a very dangerous dislocation. Let's hope the regulators fully appreciate how close we came to disaster becasue of their failure to enforce. Roubini is just one of those that forecast this recession. If I remember correctly, he wasn't even the first to call it. While Roubini is pretty good with his calls, he's not god. He does get it wrong more than he gets it right. I wouldn't hang on his every word as gospel if I were you.

                    #9.1 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:21 AM EDT
                    Reply
                    iconoclasm

                    Something to understand is just because we are going to be out of recession in no way means that we are up to the pre-recession peak.

                    A recession bottoms out when you get to the bottom of the "V" not when you get to the end of it.

                    It is still a possibility that this will be a "W" recession where we shrink twice before it's over. We've now established a base to grow from. Only fools are talking depression at this point.

                    The key to the information above is that it does not indicate that more work is needed nor does it indicate that we are growing too fast (inflation). While the worst is over the time now is to "let nature take it's course" and react to that.

                    The medicine for the time being is to continue the stimulus drip. Don't add to it and don't cut it off. Key an eye of the vital to make sure that inflation isn't occurring. The healing process, unemployment, will be slow to recover and that turn around hasn't even begun yet.

                    • 4 votes
                    Reply#10 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 7:01 PM EDT
                    Wildcard-781265

                    "Only fools are talking depression at this point."

                    You ever been in a depression? You better compare the cost of living, the money value, and the number of people out of work, the retail markets and buying power of the people today and then.

                    Sure we make more money today, but we also spend more and everything cost more, back then $30.00 a week was a good wage, today that’s not even a half days pay.

                    It's not "fools" who call it a depression, it's people who have no idea what a depression is that call it a recession, and in todays economy when you have 300 million people with a 10.6% unemployment rate, that my friend is a depression.

                      #10.1 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 9:15 PM EDT
                      iconoclasm

                      Case in point.

                      • 2 votes
                      #10.2 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 10:52 PM EDT
                      hvymtl83

                      You're free to call it whatever you want. But just because YOU say something doesn't make it so. This is far from what a real depression would look like. Be glad it didn't happen.

                      • 1 vote
                      #10.3 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 8:24 AM EDT
                      Reply
                      Wildcard-781265

                      California unemployment rate climbs to 11.9 pct.

                      Legislature reviewing possible Pratt job cuts

                      Delta will cut more management jobs

                      Avon to eliminate about 1,200 positions by 2013

                      UAL to furlough another 600 flight attendants

                      Sycamore Networks to cut 30 percent of work force

                      Xilinx to slash up to 200 jobs to cut costs

                      Defense cuts may add to growing unemployment lines

                      Nationwide cuts 480 jobs in latest layoffs

                      Did the Feds miss this? or just over look it.

                      • 2 votes
                      Reply#11 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 9:55 PM EDT
                      Par4TheCourse

                      The Plunge has slowed to a crawl - there is some examples of recovery - Jobs will be the last thing to come back - However.. Even if we come out of a Recession it isn't over by a long shot... We are already seeing signs of the worse word - Inflation.

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#12 - Wed Sep 9, 2009 10:03 PM EDT
                      mgbirish

                      "Imports rose 4.7 percent to a total of $159.6 billion, the largest monthly advance on records that date to 1992 and the second consecutive gain after 10 straight declines. The rebound reflected a 21.5 percent spike in imports of autos and auto parts"

                      It is so sad to see the good jobs in this country leaving for corporate greed! Union or non-union, the jobs are leaving at a record pace. It is so hard to find a consumer product not made in Communist China, it is a said state of affairs. We need to bring those jobs back to this country and get people back to work!!

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#13 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 12:20 PM EDT
                      Par4TheCourse

                      The Health Reform Package is the necessary part of an economy especially when it is costing trillions of dollars for companies.. small businesses many of them cannot afford health insurance especially people who are self employed. This cost us all in jobs and the rising tide of small businesses to grow... which would be a benefit to companies surviving in any economy. Many businesses before left this country due to the cost of insurance, between Workmans Comp. cases (some real / some fraudulent), that are a detriment to corporations.. especially in matching funds.

                      The Economy will grow - What is the industrials today? As I write this - it is up to 9613.27 up 66 pts. When was the last time it was up that high? Nasdaq 2079 up 18.70 S&P 1042 up 8.75

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#14 - Thu Sep 10, 2009 2:55 PM EDT
                      marcv-1026579

                      I am more concerned about the value of our currency than the Dow and Nasdaq. The Fed is nothing more than a bunch of criminal theives!

                      • 1 vote
                      Reply#15 - Fri Sep 11, 2009 12:23 PM EDT
                      DaVinci-984257

                      Auto sales were up 10.6 percent, the biggest gain in almost eight years, mainly because of the recently ended clunkers program. Gas station sales increased 5.1 percent, as prices at the pump rose.

                      Excluding those two categories, sales rose 0.6 percent — still the best performance in six months.

                      Sure kids are going back to school and this is the time of year where parents buy their kids things like clothing, cell phones and so on. This doesn't mean things are getting better. It just means that the devil is in the proverbial details!

                      • 3 votes
                      Reply#16 - Tue Sep 15, 2009 8:55 PM EDT
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