Log In | Register
NEW YORK — The amount of money spent on advertising will continue to rebound over the next few years after a sharp drop during the recession, according to several new forecasts.
The continued growth is a positive sign for the economy as a whole, suggesting businesses are feeling more confident that they can lure new customers.
But the recovery in ad spending is not showing up across the board. Instead, forecasters expect advertisers will continue to shift dollars to the Web and away from traditional media such as newspapers. And, reflecting broader economic trends, they expect emerging economies to grow much faster than their developed counterparts.
The key takeaway from the latest figures is the "continued rise of developing markets and digital media, and their central role in driving global growth," said Steve King, the head of ZenithOptimedia.
Zenith, a forecaster owned by the ad agency Publicis Groupe SA, said Monday that global ad spending will end the year up 4.9 percent over 2009 at $449.7 billion. That's slightly better than the company's previous forecast of 4.8 percent.
Zenith expects 4.6 percent growth in 2011 and 5.2 percent growth in 2012 and 2013.
Magna Global, a unit of Interpublic Group of Companies that tracks ad spending, forecasts 6.9 percent growth this year and 5.4 percent growth in 2011.
And GroupM, a division of the ad firm WPP Group PLC, predicts growth of 5.9 percent this year and 5.8 percent next.
The new forecasts come as many of the world's biggest media and entertainment companies gather for the annual UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York. Among those giving an update on the state of their business during the three-day event will be CBS Corp., Yahoo Inc. and Comcast Corp.
The latest figures on ad spending show the Web continues to take a bigger slice of the overall advertising pie.
While Zenith predicts global newspaper ad revenue will end this year down 3 percent at $94.2 billion, it expects digital ad sales will grow 14 percent to $61.9 billion.
For the U.S., the research firm eMarketer raised its forecast Monday for digital ad spending, predicting growth of 14 percent to $25.8 billion, up from a previous forecast of 12 percent.
Geographically, developing markets are providing the bulk of the growth as economies in Asia and Latin America pick up steam faster than the U.S. and Europe. GroupM expects ad spending in Latin America to end the year up 14 percent at $28.4 billion, while North America will climb just 2 percent to $155.4 billion.
