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Netflix shares tank amid backlash and defections

Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:43 AM EDT
us-news, business, technology, us, wall-street, stock, netflix
Barbara Ortutay, AP Technology Writer

FILE - In this Oct. 10, 2011 file photo, the exterior of Netflix headquarters is seen in Los Gatos, Calif. Netflix’s third-quarter earnings rose 65 percent even though the video subscription service suffered the biggest customer losses in its history, according to earnings reports released Monday, Oct. 24, 2011. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, File)

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NEW YORK — Netflix shares plunged 35 percent Tuesday after the one-time Wall Street favorite revealed a massive departure of subscribers angered by price increases and other questionable changes at the rental service that was created to make entertainment a snap.

Netflix revealed late Monday that it ended September with 23.8 million U.S. subscribers. That's down about 800,000 from June and worse than what the company had hinted at before. In September, the company predicted it will lose about 600,000 U.S. customers.

And it may get worse. Netflix said it expects more defections in coming months.

The exodus began after the company raised its prices by as much as 60 percent in July and split up its streaming and DVD rental services. Its website was flooded by comments from angry customers. Many people also canceled service, especially on the DVD-by-mail side. The company is betting that its future is in streaming video, and CEO Reed Hastings has said he expects Netflix's DVD subscriptions to steadily decline, much like what has happened to AOL Inc.'s dial-up Internet service.

But Netflix bungled a spin off its DVD-by-mail service, giving it the name Qwikster and creating separate accounts for people who wanted both DVDs and movie streaming. By doing so, the company created what many perceived as a more complicated rental process at a company that began its meteoric rise with a new, easier way of searching for and finding entertainment effortlessly.

Netflix shares fell $41.47 to close Tuesday at $77.37. The stock is down from more than $300 just 3 1/2 months ago. The last time the stock was trading so low was in April 2010, but that was during its steep ascent.

The results prompted a downgrade to "Neutral" from "Buy" from Citi Investment Research analyst Mark Mahaney on Tuesday, who also slashed his target price on the stock to $95 from $220. The analyst called the price increase and the abandoned plan to separate Netflix's DVD business two "major execution errors."

Netflix Inc. did report better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter, but that was drowned out by the din of subscriber cancellations, expense controls and a one-time tax benefit, said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter.

Pachter cut his target price to $82.50 from $110 on Netflix's stock and kept his rating at "Neutral."

Los Gatos, Calif.-based Netflix said it does not comment on stock movement or analyst reports.

© 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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  • Public Discussion (6)
BigRev

A good example of bad business decisions.

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:51 PM EDT
FDBryant3

Actually I wouldn't say they were bad business decisions so much as poorly executed ones. The fact of the matter is streaming is the future and DVD's are the past. Adapting and moving to that future is important and that is what they were trying to do. How they did it though was poor.

By splitting the cost for the DVD and streaming service was meant to accomplish two things. Long term it is to encourage people to drop the DVD or not even sign up for it. In the short term it raises cash that can be used to shore up and secure more streaming rights. The mistake though was just doing it without offering anything to the existing members. The best thing I think they could have done was grandfather and freeze people into the existing plans. In other words so long as you don't make any changes to your plan (ie anything that would cause a cost change, such as increasing or decreasing the number DVD's you receive or adding Blu-ray) you would stay on the existing price plan. Of course if you wanted to make a change you would go to the new plan. At the very least they should have done this for at least a year. I think this would have kept people from leaving, and continue to grow with new users. If nothing else they could have taken some of the sting out of the price hike by offering a 10 or 20% discount for subscribing to both services.

The second mistake was Qwikster. Further separating the services - good idea for the long term goal of killing DVD. Doing it now while people are still stewing over the price hike (not to mention having the price hike going actually into effect) bad idea. They should have waited at least a year if not two. Reversing the decision probably a good thing but not really enough.

Anyway I wouldn't sell Netflix (in fact I'd probably buy). What they need to do right now is make no more changes and focus on getting more streaming content. I think if they can do that they'll recover just fine.

  • 2 votes
#1.1 - Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:48 PM EDT
BigRev

Good point. I still think it was a bad business decision, but not a fatal decision. 800,000 fewer customers sounds horrible, but compared to 23.8 million American subscribers it's about 3+%.

It may even be a good investment opportunity, but don't take that from me. I am a lousy gambler.

  • 1 vote
#1.2 - Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:58 PM EDT
Yeah, right!

Actually, Big, I'm kind've curious about all of this hyper-focus on Netflix atm.

I mean, did they screw up? Most definitely! They stepped their foot in it- that much is true but... why this almost violent response of people?

See, this is what's getting my cynical chip working overtime here.....

Other companies seemed to have made either the same level of- or even worse errors back in past and were deemed relatively "okay"-case in point? The cable companies showing a net loss of subscribers not more than six months ago after raising their rates (YET Again!)- But they seemed to be doing just fine! They're doing A-Okay, it's just the economy-etc,etc,etc....

So... cynical chip kicking in....

Why is it that the one company that was mentioned over and over and over again as being the primary reason that folks can "cut the cord" is suddenly under attack for making an error that from any other company wouldn't even hit the back page?!!!

The cynic in me? I have to wonder....

Of course... I'm probably paranoid about all of this so, we'll be able to tell when the paid sponsors show up to trash Netflix.....

    #1.3 - Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:34 AM EDT
    Reply
    TexasIsHome

    Serves Netflix right for screwing around with their loyal customers.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#2 - Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:15 PM EDT
    Josh Ames

    Great time to buy Netflix stock. I don't see this bleeding continuing, especially once people realize that Netflix is still a much better deal than their cable service.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#3 - Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:41 PM EDT
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