Don't get me wrong. The world won't run out of oil in seven-10 years. That's not how it works. It's just that volumes of conventional oil are declining.

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Observers say that the IEA, which provides authoritative research to OECD countries, is concerned that the supply of oil could fail to keep up with demand driven by the fast-industrialising economies of China and India.

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In 2000 a Saudi oil geologist named Sadad I. Al Husseini made a startling discovery. Husseini, then head of exploration and production for the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, had long been skeptical of the oil industry's upbeat forecasts for future production.

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As the supply of oil begins to contract, exporters will probably significantly reduce the amout of crude they send overseas. This will happen well in advance of peak oil being a verifiable event.

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As politicians point fingers at greedy oil company CEO's, something strange is happening in the background. Most domestic oil companies are posting falling profit. The news reports that they are raking in record breaking revenue but a closer look shows a different story.

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Peak oil is still a hotly debated topic among the oil industry, geologists and energy analysts. The upward pressure on the price per barrel has made everyone think twice about the possibility we may be in the uncharted waters of energy scarcity.

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Update: IEA Warning 12.5 MBD Supply Shortage

I have retrieved the entire document translated to english by Cappella, a member of the Life After the Oil Crash blog forum. Please read it carefully as it portends significant difficulties for all of us. "The Sirens Shrill"

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Kunstler argues that the coming age of energy scarcity will change everything about how we live in this country -- most of all our dependency on automobiles.

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